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Serious 2020 Democratic Primary Thread
- Thread starter MikeDawg
- Start date
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-socialism-because-capitalism-has-failed-them
on point as usual
https://www.newsweek.com/marianne-w...rynM_NKmDmfg6MkT_2VFcnS5sM#Echobox=1583196796
fatphobic wine orbmom says funny things sometimes
on point as usual
https://www.newsweek.com/marianne-w...rynM_NKmDmfg6MkT_2VFcnS5sM#Echobox=1583196796
fatphobic wine orbmom says funny things sometimes
he's a rby player his mind is basically a turing machine
EV
Banned deucer.
I fucking voted for Warren. smd.
And fuck the drop-outs on the eve of Super Tuesday trynna dunk Bernie out of the race with this Biden nonsense. We don't need another incoherent mildly demented white dude pervert. If I have to circle in his name come November I'm going to be right fuming.
And fuck the drop-outs on the eve of Super Tuesday trynna dunk Bernie out of the race with this Biden nonsense. We don't need another incoherent mildly demented white dude pervert. If I have to circle in his name come November I'm going to be right fuming.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/...nU2U-CeruWMq6JosPhcT8XBQVBTgl9lMInsu9xCl8uu2g
food for thought
"In the one poll showing significant Trump strength in Wisconsin (Quinnipiac), Mr. Sanders still fares the best of the Democratic contenders." basically sums up how it will go in every swing state imo
food for thought
"In the one poll showing significant Trump strength in Wisconsin (Quinnipiac), Mr. Sanders still fares the best of the Democratic contenders." basically sums up how it will go in every swing state imo
Candidates have the right to drop out or stay in as long as their finances permit. If the drop outs "dunked" Bernie out of the race, it's because he wasn't ever going to get near a majority to begin with. That's not a winning coalition.
The surprise of the night is Bloomberg. Interestingly, he's doing better than expected in some states (Colorado?!) and a lot worse than expected in other states. He will probably suspend his campaign tomorrow.
Tulsi won a delegate and Bloomberg won a caucus!
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/american-samoa
You know what this means?
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/american-samoa
You know what this means?
I really have no clue what it means. Does it even mean anything?
Or maybe when literally 5% of delegates had been awarded, and the race just had a major shake up in several candidates dropping, you should feel free to vote for your preferred choice
Anyway, the false narratives of "Warren should have dropped out so thereby Bernie would have won" are just BS. First, we already did see Warren underperform her polling by a few % indicating some people really did abandon her ship (anecdotally, I sure know people who did that in Virginia). Bernie still generally speaking underperformed even if we add in some of those Warren folks who presumably jumped ship to him. But we also know that less than half of Warren voters have listed Bernie as their second choice in past opinion polling, and this even assumes they'd show up to vote for a second choice.
A majority of Warren's second choice voters have previously stated support of the "3 kids in a trench coat" moderates combined, 2 of whom withdrew and endorsed the third. There's reason to believe that were Warren to drop out, it'd be roughly a wash in terms of how much goes to Bernie and how much goes to Biden. Her coalition (small, at this point), is not all Sanders voters. A large chunk who were have already made that jump. What remains is not entirely clear, but it seems to be much more mixed.
Secondly, it's inherently unfair to apply this narrative only to Warren and not say the same thing about Bloomberg, the majority of whose support goes to Biden (I mean at this point it's probably almost every one who even still shows up to vote for a second choice, since they can't go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar at this point. How many Bloomberg -> Bernie voters are there really lmao)
For example, here's the 538 averages for Massachusetts vs actual results
Biden 18 -> 34 (+16)
Sanders 24 -> 27 (+3)
Warren 21 -> 21 (+0)
Bloomberg 15 -> 12 (-3)
Buttigieg 13 -> 3 (-10)
Klobuchar 7 -> 1 (-6)
Other states aren't quite so extreme as this one I think, but generally speaking, Biden really did consolidate Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters, though a small portion did go to Sanders. Similarly, Bloomberg has generally speaking underperformed his polling, with, it seems, some of that support heading Biden's way too. In some states, Warren also underperformed her polls, but even in those Sanders did not significantly overperform his numbers. It's not clear if she dropped out that it would be much more than a wash in a lot of states.
How much of this is bad turnout assumptions in the polls vs late breaking movement post-SC and endorsements from Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and relevant local figures in individual states I'm not sure. If it's the late movement, I don't really blame the polls since it all kinda happened at the 11th hour. If it's turnout assumptions though that would be more interesting.
EDIT:
seems to mostly be late breaking voters:
Anyway, the false narratives of "Warren should have dropped out so thereby Bernie would have won" are just BS. First, we already did see Warren underperform her polling by a few % indicating some people really did abandon her ship (anecdotally, I sure know people who did that in Virginia). Bernie still generally speaking underperformed even if we add in some of those Warren folks who presumably jumped ship to him. But we also know that less than half of Warren voters have listed Bernie as their second choice in past opinion polling, and this even assumes they'd show up to vote for a second choice.
A majority of Warren's second choice voters have previously stated support of the "3 kids in a trench coat" moderates combined, 2 of whom withdrew and endorsed the third. There's reason to believe that were Warren to drop out, it'd be roughly a wash in terms of how much goes to Bernie and how much goes to Biden. Her coalition (small, at this point), is not all Sanders voters. A large chunk who were have already made that jump. What remains is not entirely clear, but it seems to be much more mixed.
Secondly, it's inherently unfair to apply this narrative only to Warren and not say the same thing about Bloomberg, the majority of whose support goes to Biden (I mean at this point it's probably almost every one who even still shows up to vote for a second choice, since they can't go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar at this point. How many Bloomberg -> Bernie voters are there really lmao)
For example, here's the 538 averages for Massachusetts vs actual results
Biden 18 -> 34 (+16)
Sanders 24 -> 27 (+3)
Warren 21 -> 21 (+0)
Bloomberg 15 -> 12 (-3)
Buttigieg 13 -> 3 (-10)
Klobuchar 7 -> 1 (-6)
Other states aren't quite so extreme as this one I think, but generally speaking, Biden really did consolidate Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters, though a small portion did go to Sanders. Similarly, Bloomberg has generally speaking underperformed his polling, with, it seems, some of that support heading Biden's way too. In some states, Warren also underperformed her polls, but even in those Sanders did not significantly overperform his numbers. It's not clear if she dropped out that it would be much more than a wash in a lot of states.
How much of this is bad turnout assumptions in the polls vs late breaking movement post-SC and endorsements from Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and relevant local figures in individual states I'm not sure. If it's the late movement, I don't really blame the polls since it all kinda happened at the 11th hour. If it's turnout assumptions though that would be more interesting.
EDIT:
seems to mostly be late breaking voters:
Last edited:
TheValkyries
proudly reppin' 2 superbowl wins since DEFLATEGATE
Bernie's campaign outspent Biden's and had more offices in the states then Biden by a significant margin. Yet Biden carries those states because the number one decider for who gets to be elected remains to be how the media reports the news. This all sucks.
Last edited:
No. The number one decider is tribalism. The media’s “horse race” narrative does not dictate voting behavior. Biden’s success was due to him being the front runner all race, with Democratic Party faithful voters temporarily looking elsewhere when he looked shaky in early primary states. The polls bear this out. Bernie’s biggest challenge winning a Democratic primary is not being “part of the team.” He could have joined the party post 2016, yet opted not to.
The telltale is to look at Bernie Sanders favorability rating among all Democrats, including older black voters. He is highly favorable amongst all groups. However, Democrats still will always prefer to cast their vote for a Democrat.
Well done America. You've shot down every campaign with any sort of enthusiasm behind it. We're left with 'Biden I guess.'
Two senile old men claiming whatever bullshit lets them get elected.
Trump's going to make Mexico build a wall, while Biden's going to cure cancer. Much more feasible.
Biden has charm, so he might have a chance, but you guys deserve Trump.
Two senile old men claiming whatever bullshit lets them get elected.
Trump's going to make Mexico build a wall, while Biden's going to cure cancer. Much more feasible.
Biden has charm, so he might have a chance, but you guys deserve Trump.
So because the Democratic voters appear to be leaning toward center-left candidates, America deserves a treasonous, imbecile con man?
A friend of mine in California who goes to UCLA had to wait almost 6 hours to cast his vote in and similarly saw the same in texas when I put on the news this morning. He had to ask someone else to pick up his shift because he didn't expect to be waiting so long and he saw several people just flat out leave because they didn't want to wait anymore or they didn't want to miss class. Why is voting still so difficult in 2020? I've always done mail in but if you choose not to you should never have to wait so long.
they're essentially saying "we like hellworld, actually"
Republicans. H.R.1, which makes voter registration automatic and Election Day a federal holiday, is collecting dust on Mitch McConnells desk.
Explain that shitty logic for us.
trump’s going to call him “senile joe” and win 40 states. really bizarre to see real people itt denying that trump is a competent populist. that complacent attitude will lose you another general election. biden will be made into a bumbling establishment goon quicker than you can blink. only bernie can win the general.
where's the votes to correspond with the enthusiasm? young people had awful turnout
The 2018 and 2020 turnout numbers, along with long term Generic Congressional polling suggest you are completely wrong.
biden won the groups that turned out at far better rates in the democratic primary relative to 2016, but apparently biden's campaign is lacking enthusiasm.
something doesn't check out
also anyone who thinks one candidate is far more likely than another candidate (whether it be biden relative to sanders or sanders relative to biden) to beat donald trump in a general election is a massive hypocrite and doesn't actually understand how polarized american politics have been over the past decade, and more so the last 4 years.
something doesn't check out
also anyone who thinks one candidate is far more likely than another candidate (whether it be biden relative to sanders or sanders relative to biden) to beat donald trump in a general election is a massive hypocrite and doesn't actually understand how polarized american politics have been over the past decade, and more so the last 4 years.
well...
While yes I agree that young people are lacking in voting. Lets not act like voting isn't an incredibly hard thing to do for people who have to work, for fear of losing their job. Add to that many states closed an absurd amount of voting locations (750 closed in Texas since the voting rights act!), making it even harder for someone short on time to get to a location.