Tournament LCPL 6 - Week 2

Status
Not open for further replies.

freezai

Live for the Applause
is a Tiering Contributor
[20:40:47] +Serene's Grace: ItzViper482
[20:40:51] +ItzViper482: yo
[20:41:05] +Serene's Grace: what do you say we up the ante a bit
[20:41:13] +Serene's Grace: winner gets to choose the loers smogon avi for a month
[20:43:08] +ItzViper482: ok
[20:43:09] +ItzViper482: yes.
[20:43:11] +ItzViper482: i agree
playing at 8:30 pm est on saturday
 

churine

lunatic+
is a Smogon Discord Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnus
im gonna waste my life away doing some math about pokemon hax. if you count the 5 consecutive flinches, and another flinch on the mienfoo in tcr vs kaboom, the chances are about 0.0729%, or 1/1371.74...

30% is 0.3
[there were 6 flinches in total so 0.3^6]
=0.3^6
__________
=0.000729
[you go 2 decimal places to the right when converting to percentage]
=0.0729%

now lets convert to fraction just for fun

i generally like to do 1/decimal number to get my number converted into fraction so lets do that.
1/0.000729
=1371.74211...
you then make this number the denominator while the numerator is just 1, so its like, 1/1371.74..., this fraction will just go back to equal 0.000729, which stated before is 0.0729%.

its not exact probability since the events is already done, nor were they all a single event, but holy shit thats low. thats some really unfortunate luck for Kaboom, hope him and the Belchsprouts have better luck in future games, as for Snivys, good luck in the future too, with Merritt being a math lord.
 
[20:40:47] +Serene's Grace: ItzViper482
[20:40:51] +ItzViper482: yo
[20:41:05] +Serene's Grace: what do you say we up the ante a bit
[20:41:13] +Serene's Grace: winner gets to choose the loers smogon avi for a month
[20:43:08] +ItzViper482: ok
[20:43:09] +ItzViper482: yes.
[20:43:11] +ItzViper482: i agree
playing at 8:30 pm est on saturday
are you sure this is what you want gracing the screen of any user who dares read your post?
 

Xayah

San Bwanna
is a Community Contributoris a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnus
Okay so just like Elec. I decided to look into the maths of it all, but I decided to go a step further. I went over all of the Belchsprout's games, picked apart every game, figured out where RNG was involved, and applied every variable I could find to figure out exactly what the chances were of the Belchsprouts having luck this shit. For this, I needed a reliable source, and what better source than PS!'s own code. So I delved deep and came up with a pretty surprising result. My math is in the hide tag, though I don't recommend reading it all, it gets pretty ridiculous. It could be fun to just open the hide tag to see how insane this got, so I do advice you to do that.







So as you can see from all that, it was actually mathmatically impossible. Thus we can conclude the Belchsprouts have officially broken the laws of nature by having luck this shit, and since no one else has ever achieved that, I say we pronounce them the winners of LCPL right now.
 
Last edited:

kjdaas

this girl rly slapped some letters together huh
is a Community Contributoris a Tournament Director Alumnusis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Top Dedicated Tournament Host Alumnus
Maybe a little late for doing prediction but better late than never! Gl to everyone!

Snivy Subterfuge (5) vs The Belchsprouts (3)
SM: Merritt vs Star
SM: Gummysaur vs Kingler12345
SM: Finchinator vs 067jox
SM: ItzViper482 vs Serene's Grace
XY: slurmz v stazz
XY: rssp1 vs Arifeen
BW: tcr vs Kaboom
DPP: Drew vs TheFenderStory

The Crystal Onix (4) vs Guerrilla Goletts (4)
SM: tko vs Dundies
SM: rozes vs Eternal Spirit
SM: Ice Tea vs Poek
SM: KratosMana vs tahu
XY: teal6 vs Brazilian Army
XY: -Tsunami- vs Berks
BW: FLCL vs Rowan
DPP: Heysup vs fran17

Waterless Wynauts (2) vsGonefroggin.comFroakies (6)
SM: Rodriblutar vs Vubon
SM: Tricking vs The Quasar
SM: majaspic22 vs Kenzo
SM: Fiend vs ZoroDark
XY: HT vs Kushalos
XY: Trace vs blarajan
BW: Void vs atomicllamas
DPP: idiotfrommars vs Kumiho

Stunting Stunkys (3) vs Lit af Litleos (5)
SM: fatty vs Zebraiken
SM: obii vs OP
SM: Christo vs miltankmilk
SM: TDK vs ggggd
XY: absdaddy vs GOAO
XY: Pearl vs trash
BW: TUO vs fitzy72
DPP: Nails vs p2
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 1, Guests: 0)

Top