Metagame [SPOILERS] ULTRA SM - Speculation & Discussion

[Baguette Syndrome]

FYI: none of the UB's (Including the newer ones) can learn HP Fighting because they always have at least three stats with 31 IV's, so Tyranitar will always hard counter Blacephalon and check Naganadel.

 

[Sultan]

Oh, and before "Well, you can just get 3 Nasty Plots and Z-Dragon Heatran away". If you were allowed to get to that point, maybe Heatran isn't the problem; maybe your opponent was the problem.

+2 252 SpA Dragalge Devastating Drake (195 BP) vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Heatran: 297-349 (91.9 - 108%) -- 50% chance to OHKO

And before you say "Oh, but Assault Vest" if this thing makes us run sets like Assault Vest Heatran that's not a sign that it's a healthy presence. It's too early to call it broken, of course, but it's still something to watch out for.

 

[ShadowMarioGalaxy64]

+2 252 SpA Dragalge Devastating Drake (195 BP) vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Heatran: 297-349 (91.9 - 108%) -- 50% chance to OHKO

And before you say "Oh, but Assault Vest" if this thing makes us run sets like Assault Vest Heatran that's not a sign that it's a healthy presence. It's too early to call it broken, of course, but it's still something to watch out for.

+2 252 SpA Dragalge Devastating Drake (195 BP) vs. 248 HP / 220+ SpD Heatran: 222-261 (57.6 - 67.7%)

Stop cherry picking EV spreads in an attempt to make a point. Clearly not the best tank of a Z-Move, but definitely better than what you want to paint.

Edit: Assault Vest Heatran is disgusting and even more far-fetched than +6 Draco Meteor. Please.

 

[Sultan]

+2 252 SpA Dragalge Devastating Drake (195 BP) vs. 248 HP / 220+ SpD Heatran: 222-261 (57.6 - 67.7%)

Stop cherry picking EV spreads in an attempt to make a point.

Edit: Assault Vest Heatran is disgusting, so please do not put words in my mouth.

That still does 60% to a mon without reliable recovery. And without the SpA investment, it's not KOing back:

0 SpA Heatran Earth Power vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Dragalge: 210-248 (73.1 - 86.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

 

[Yung Dramps]

One thing I would like to note about Naganadel: If you're gonna use NP + Z-Draco, after consuming your Z-crystal, if you use Draco again, you'll be left at neutral Special Attack. This is fairly harmful for a Nasty Plot sweeper, no? And you boost Speed after Beast Boost, not Special Attack, so you can't compensate for that.

 

[Siggu]

One thing I would like to note about Naganadel: If you're gonna use NP + Z-Draco, after consuming your Z-crystal, if you use Draco again, you'll be left at neutral Special Attack. This is fairly harmful for a Nasty Plot sweeper, no? And you boost Speed after Beast Boost, not Special Attack, so you can't compensate for that.

Two Draco Meteors are stronger than two Dragon Pulses, which is generally what it would be using before switching out.

Heatran is a hard check to Naganadel - Specially Defensive can only Roar it away if without enough chip damage (+2 Devastating Drake + +2 Draco Meteor KO even that set) and offensive can be OHKOed before doing anything.

The matter here is dealing with offense. Not for nothing Naganadel is the most powerful OU-legal Nasty Plot user.

 

[Baguette Syndrome]

I'm also expecting Scarf Keldeo to surge in usage, because it beats many of the new threats in AV Ttar, non-scarf Blacephalon, Defog Gliscor, Defensive Heatran and Gunk Shot Ash-Gren (Although it's quite overhyped imo, it's pressed for moveslots on specs sets as is and isn't significantly powerful pre-battle bond) but it doesn't change the fact that the ladder with be filled with it.

 

[Yung Dramps]

I'm also expecting Keldeo to surge in usage, because it beats many of the new threats in AV Ttar, Blacephalon, Defog Gliscor and Gunk Shot Ash-Gren (Although it's quite overhyped imo, it's pressed for moveslots on specs sets as is and isn't significantly powerful pre-battle bond)

Gunk Shot Ash-Greninja hype has already died. Gunk Shot is piss weak before Battle Bond, and even afterwards it kinda sucks.

 

[ShadowMarioGalaxy64]

without the SpA investment, it's not KOing back:

0 SpA Heatran Earth Power vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Dragalge: 210-248 (73.1 - 86.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock and 1 layer of Spikes

Mind you, that's still a common possibility considering the state of the meta; even if everything just got Defog, not every mon's gonna be able to properly use it, being likely relegated to Gliscor, the occasional Landorus-T, and maybe Rotom-W, at least as far as I can see (do not mention Klefki to me).

 

[Leo]

Or you could, you know, be smart and weaken Heatran upon switchin with a Draco to pick it off later with a +2 zmove. Really, most of these hypothetical scenarios and shit aren't that big of a deal because you can't factor in everything that could go down in a game and just makes 0 sense to keep arguing over these until the games are released and we actually get to see these mons in action. This whole exchange of "what if Heatran is spd" "what if spikes are up" is just silly and derails the actual purpose of this thread, you could keep going on with "what if theres also spikes on the other side" "what if I Pursuit trap Heatran with Tyranitar" "what if I do the same to Naganadel" but you won't get anywhere, I don't know why you think this is necessary to prove your points. In the end even if spd Heatran or whatever beats x mon, do you really think you're going to use it on every single balance?

 

[Alphanex20]

Call me crazy, but couldn’t you run Sub on SpD Heatran with this running around? +2 won’t put you too low to Sub and you force it to either drop 2 stages or blow the z-move if it goes to +4. If it doesn’t NP the you basically have a free Sub to either get off a free hit or maybe Toxic something.

 

[Siggu]

Call me crazy, but couldn’t you run Sub on SpD Heatran with this running around? +2 won’t put you too low to Sub and you force it to either drop 2 stages or blow the z-move if it goes to +4. If it doesn’t NP the you basically have a free Sub to either get off a free hit or maybe Toxic something.

That would imply Heatran was already in before Naganadel sets up. At that point you'd better be off Roaring or using Earth Power.

 

[Alphanex20]

That would imply Heatran was already in before Naganadel sets up. At that point you'd better be off Roaring or using Earth Power.

Sorry, I meant you come in on the NP, then Sub as you take the hit, but yeah your point still stands. I don't know, maybe Sub on the set could be nice if you come in and it doesn't set up--i.e, if it's Choiced or just thinks NP is too risky for whatever reason. Hell, I have seen people talking about Naga Draco-ing Heatran to weaken it so maybe running Sub could discourage that? If nothing else Sub + Toxic isn't that bad of a set to begin with.

 

[TURBODERP]

Sorry, I meant you come in on the NP, then Sub as you take the hit, but yeah your point still stands. I don't know, maybe Sub on the set could be nice if you come in and it doesn't set up--i.e, if it's Choiced or just thinks NP is too risky for whatever reason. Hell, I have seen people talking about Naga Draco-ing Heatran to weaken it so maybe running Sub could discourage that? If nothing else Sub + Toxic isn't that bad of a set to begin with.

Yea but if they hit you with a +2 DD, after a Sub you'll be so low you can't check anything (if you're forced to switch). +2 Draco does 38-45, which is pretty hefty, so after Sub that's what, 55% on average or something? Plus, they can always switch out into Toxapex or something.

 

[volx757]

Yea but if they hit you with a +2 DD, after a Sub you'll be so low you can't check anything (if you're forced to switch). +2 Draco does 38-45, which is pretty hefty, so after Sub that's what, 55% on average or something? Plus, they can always switch out into Toxapex or something.

If they go to pex as SpDef heatran subs, pex loses. It's scald can't break the sub and tran gets a 3hko with no EHs.

 

[Siggu]

Sorry, I meant you come in on the NP, then Sub as you take the hit, but yeah your point still stands. I don't know, maybe Sub on the set could be nice if you come in and it doesn't set up--i.e, if it's Choiced or just thinks NP is too risky for whatever reason. Hell, I have seen people talking about Naga Draco-ing Heatran to weaken it so maybe running Sub could discourage that? If nothing else Sub + Toxic isn't that bad of a set to begin with.

+2 252 SpA Dragalge Devastating Drake (195 BP) vs. 248 HP / 220+ SpD Heatran: 222-261 (57.6 - 67.7%)

If you use Sub after taking the Devastating Drake, Heatran will be at 7.3 - 17.4% (13.3 - 23.4%) of its HP. Fine, there's Leftovers but it would put Heatran in a very compromising situation.

 

[AM]

Is there any other move tutors that are missing from the OP that are relevant besides stuff getting Defog and such? I'm tired of reading 4 pages about Naga and how we're gonna switch Heatran in to do more than likely nothing in return to make a difference and am more curious if any UU mons or lower to gain some relevance in OU. Too much information to keep track of and maybe someone more in tune can summarize it without all the gas I'm reading.

 

[Vengeance417]

Is there any other move tutors that are missing from the OP that are relevant besides stuff getting Defog and such? I'm tired of reading 4 pages about Naga and how we're gonna switch Heatran in to do more than likely nothing in return to make a difference and am more curious if any UU mons or lower to gain some relevance in OU. Too much information to keep track of and maybe someone more in tune can summarize it without all the gas I'm reading.

Nihilego got access to both Knock Off and Magic Coat. Now, these two wouldn't be on the same set, but I can see Knock off being a cool utility move on more offensive sets to get rid of Chansey's Eviolite, while Magic Coat will be pretty cool to see on lead sets. Not sure if these additions would make it any better in OU, though, but I predict it'll get somewhat better in UU thanks to being able to Knock Off whatever items Scizor and Alolan Muk, for instance, are running, as well as Porygon2's Eviolite.

 

[Yung Dramps]

Is there any other move tutors that are missing from the OP that are relevant besides stuff getting Defog and such? I'm tired of reading 4 pages about Naga and how we're gonna switch Heatran in to do more than likely nothing in return to make a difference and am more curious if any UU mons and such gain something to gain some relevance in OU. Too much information to keep track of and maybe someone more in tune can summarize it without all the gas I'm reading.

I would be more than happy to bring in some fresh discussion. All these debates surrounding Naganadel and new Defoggers are getting old.

For example, did anyone here bring up that Alolan Muk now gets the elemental punches and Recycle/Pain Split? Here's what this means:

-Garchomp, Zygarde and to an extent Landorus-T can no longer switch in for fear of getting bopped by Ice Punch.
-Muk-Alola now gets a semi reliable form of recovery in the form of Recycle + Figy Berry w/ Gluttony. Pain Split may or may not be usable on Poison Touch sets.

Yeah, this isn't a super powerful buff like Defog, but it's still something.
Some other semi notable buffs:

-Mimikyu gets Drain Punch. Ghost/Fighting coverage seems nice, with sustain to boot.
-Bewear gets DP too. Pretty cool for a bulky Fighting type like him.

 

[Karxrida]

Is there any other move tutors that are missing from the OP that are relevant besides stuff getting Defog and such? I'm tired of reading 4 pages about Naga and how we're gonna switch Heatran in to do more than likely nothing in return to make a difference and am more curious if any UU mons or lower to gain some relevance in OU. Too much information to keep track of and maybe someone more in tune can summarize it without all the gas I'm reading.

I believe Amoonguss gets Stomping Tantrum, letting it lure and kill Heatran more effectively than HP Ground could.

Nothing else of note that I can remember.

 

[Marigold]

Going to bring up an offensive core that I think will be (too) amazing once USUM drops.

+ [Naganadel]

click here to win OU ladder

Tapu Lele @ Choice Specs
Ability: Psychic Surge
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Psychic
- Psyshock
- Moonblast
- Hidden Power [Fire] / Focus Blast

Naganadel @ Dragonium Z
Ability: Beast Boost
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Nasty Plot
- Draco Meteor
- Sludge Wave
- Fire Blast

Spdef heatran checks this core well... right? Good luck preserving your spdef heatran vs this core. These two share some checks, and specs lele is notorious for 3hko'ing many steel types through psychic stabs alone.

252 SpA Choice Specs Tapu Lele Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Heatran in Psychic Terrain: 140-165 (36.2 - 42.7%) -- 95.5% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

This damage over the course of a battle is key for naganadel sweeping. I could see a hyper offense team utilizing this core effectively, because hazard stack damage puts the nail in heatran's coffin to ensure it cannot check naganadel after switching into specs lele.

Additionally, psychic terrain can protect naganadel from priority, which is key as weakening naganadel into priority range seems to be a commonly discussed tactic to beat it after it gains a +1 speed from beast boost. This sounds like a situational synergy, but pheromosa-lele thrived in OU in part because of this exact strategy.

Add a steel type to complete the fairy/dragon/steel core, and it looks like a solid foundation for an USUM offensive team to me. Can't wait to count how many days this dragon/poison will last in OU!

 

[13_luckynumber]

TIL Ribombee has base 124 Spe.

This is really really, like really out there but Sticky Web Ribombee could be decent-ish as it can get Webs up against the one thing that killed Webs in the first place: Mega Diancie. Ribombee is a fairy type too so you'll have a Web setter that's not completely useless against Mega Sableye.

It's faster than Diancie so you can click HP Steel (...) to bop it. And against Sableye, you can obv spam Moonblast.

Shield Dust, oddly enough, works as you don't get flinched from Fake Out so Lopunny and Medicham cant stop you. Either get Web up or give them a Moonblast to eat. (Rolls are in your favor kill Lop and always kill Medi)

Also, Shield Dust combos sooo well with Focus Sash since no random poison, burn, para or flinch from attacks can make you sash useless

Ribombee @ Focus Sash
Ability: Shield Dust
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- Sticky Web
- Hidden Power [Steel]
- Moonblast
- U-turn/ Stun Spore/ Toxic/ Light Screen/ Reflect

U-turn is probably the best 4th move for pivoting into sth that can take advantage of opposing Spinners/ Defoggers. The other slashed moves are usable techs ig.

Probably a somewhat usable mon ... although it doesnt get rocks so it's at best just a not-bad alternative for Shuckle ig

 

[Dreadfury]

I'm going to sound redundant at this point, but Naganadel fulfills a very unique role as a special wallbreaker. Unlike most, it scares the living daylights out of Chansey.

I'm going to provide an interesting calc to show just how strong a base 195 Devastating Drake is after a Nasty Plot boost:

+2 252 SpA Dragalge Devastating Drake (195 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Eviolite Chansey: 319-376 (45.3 - 53.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

Yes, that's a one-time use Z-move. The catch is, Chansey cannot really touch Naganadel in return. Seismic Toss isn't even a 2HKO. This gives Naganadel a chance to outright boost in Chansey's face instead, securing a KO with Sludge Wave thereafter if hazards are up and if Chansey doesn't attempt to heal. The Chansey user is forced to decide between chipping away at Naganadel and healing, however. It has to predict around eating attacks and healing or getting valuable chip damage and hopefully revenge killing Naganadel with another party member with some sort of priority, and predicting incorrectly gives Naganadel that much more breathing room to fire off a ludicrously-powerful STAB move on it instead.

A great typing is one thing. Being able to beat Fairies and eat up Toxic Spikes is nothing to scoff at. Its stat distribution is also pretty reasonable on its own, as 121 Speed and 127 Special Attack isn't exactly unreasonable considering the other top-tier threats that can outspeed it and its bulk isn't too crazy although it's enough to make it live some hits in a pinch. But Beast Boost honestly makes this thing borderline unreasonable. Being able to pick up a single Speed boost after nuking something from orbit makes it substantially harder to revenge kill, letting it outpace all but the fastest of scarfers. And although Nasty Plot+Dragonium Z is probably going to be its best set by an enormous margin, having the option to run Choice Scarf and Choice Specs is also nice. The incredible ability lets it customize its stats very, very well, giving it something akin to a more reasonable Pheromosa. Is it a typical NP+Z-move set that can set up and eat you alive if it predicts your switch correctly? Is it Scarf+Modest to pick up a Special Attack boost if it revenge kills something? Its speed tier is pretty great, after all. Is it Specs+Timid so it can clean surprisingly well lategame? It's got a couple of options including a terrifying setup sweeping/wallbreaking set and even incredibly fat special tanks - including the specially bulkiest variants of Chansey, which aren't as common nowadays - have very little business eating a Z-move from this monster.

USuMo aren't bringing too many crazy things to the table, like a whole bunch of megas of varying levels of brokenness ranging from Metagross, who started out borderline broken but evaded a ban and fell off in Gen 6 only to get banned in Gen 7, and Salamence, which was quickbanned about a week before OR/AS were even released and is one of the top threats in Ubers. But this thing, two good defoggers in Poison Heal Gliscor and Tornadus-T, and giving Knock Off to that cancerous sea urchin thing Toxapex are all going to be huge in OU. Mark my words.

 

[Patolegend!]

I think people are blowing the wicked witch way out of proportion - with those defenses it can't run a choice set without U-turn, as while it's Hella scary, it's three moves are horrible to be locked into. It's stabs have common immunities on both sides and fire is a sub-par neutral attacking type, what with tar and heatran incredibly common. Each move has such common resists/immunities it's going to struggle to snowball. It might surprise you once if it's scarf, but one kills the limit - if it Dracos, it's at -1 spa for each kill; if it sludge waves/fire blasts, there are ample fire or poison resists that'll switch in and force it out.

The z-set will be nasty, granted... but we now have a ton of fast scarfers who can revenge. Greninja, Latis, kartana with some chip, terrakion... To name but a few. Mamo and weavile will rise in popularity, as will banded zygarde and other strong priority Mons. I can also see eject button toxapex making a return, together with band tar to pursuit trap. It'll be good for sure, but it's no mega blaze/Luke, or Mence.

 

[Of Moose & Men]

The z-set will be nasty, granted... but we now have a ton of fast scarfers who can revenge. Greninja, Latis, kartana with some chip, terrakion... To name but a few. Mamo and weavile will rise in popularity, as will banded zygarde and other strong priority Mons. I can also see eject button toxapex making a return, together with band tar to pursuit trap. It'll be good for sure, but it's no mega blaze/Luke, or Mence.

Just a note, the Latis, Kartana, and Terrak do not revenge kill since, once it gets said kill, it gets a speed boost.

Don't disagree with anything else stated. Just wanted to clear that up.