Yo just dropping a quick update on my early thoughts. I've played 33 games on the top of ladder so far and this meta is pretty weird and unfun at times ngl. The main thing that I've noticed so far is that offensive teams have been struggling. As of right now I see three major reasons for this:
1) Skarm + Lu - Hyper offense has always struggled against momentum-heavy teams in this gen and normally it relied on Gambit-based (sometimes Ghold-based) outs to try and smash through momentum-heavy balance. Unfortunately, since the leading balance archetype right now is Skarm-based, Gambit ends up auto-checked in the builder, which in turn enables a wider range of picks that are nonetheless annoying to HO to thrive.To give some examples of this:
- Pex is a mon that continues to have a really useful defensive profile, and the major shackles that were holding it back (Gking/Gambit/Ghold) are either naturally checked or less used so far.
- Alomomola is currently exactly the mon that people thought it'd be when it got given Flip Turn. I've seen literally 1 Waterpon so far, and in the rest of my games with Mola it was noticeable how much I could milk the Regen + Wish support along with good positioning from Flip Turn to basically shut my opponent out of the game
- Having two fast mons instead of 1 is much more feasible right now than it was on fat balance prior to this DLC. This can make a huge difference vs threats like Tera Ghold, which can often get overwhelmed by some combination of hazards, Ting-Lu wasting Recovers and forcing Tera, and a 1-2 punch of faster mons, which typically leads to some situation where Ghold is no longer able to win, while the balance team retains a speed control option + the central balance core (just as a 4+1 vs 5 as opposed to a 5+1 vs 6). A good example of such a structure would be
this team by Vert and NJNP
The main change that causes the things I've mentioned here is that Skarmory is a big step forward in role compression for fat balance. Having a fat specially defensive blanket check, a fat physically defensive blanket check, and a hazard game that allows you to get up Rocks/Spikes against Tusk are all key priorities when building a fat balance team, and previously you had to use three slots minimum to pull this off (dual hazards Lu will lose the ability to blanket check some special threats no matter which move you drop, and Lu's moveslots are in high demand in the context of balance). Since Skarmory + Ting-Lu can comfortably do this in two slots, you basically end up with a whole extra slot to use on some idea that previously wouldnt have been possible to fit on a reliable team.
2) Terapagos - The existence of Terapagos works against offense's viability in this meta - its defensive profile and utility options cause more of a headache in the builder than its threat level against balance staples. Unlike offense, balanced teams can actually afford to run a fat spdef mon with Toxic, and they will likely be running Ting-Lu on top of that as well. On top of that, Terapagos can be used as a stat check to basically any threat that scares the rest of the team with Toxic and its attacking options, or it can be used to Spin hazards in the middle of the game. This is already pretty bad news for offense, but it gets even worse when you consider the possibility of Terapagos clicking the funny button and becoming a 700 BST monster that disables you weather/terrain - admittedly this did not come up as much in my games as the other factors, largely because Tera in general can already be used to create an extra bulky resist to powerful weather-boosted moves if you have the right mons (which I did). In any case, taking teamstyles that already have a lot to consider in the builder, and then also figuring out a way to avoid Terapagos invalidating ur shit can be pretty hard.
3) The DLC additions - Most of the popular DLC mons so far have skewed towards being fast rather than powerful. Mons like Deo-S, Iron Boulder, and even Darkrai (since its best set is looking to be Scarf) have reached new heights either in natural speed or revenge killing potential, while breaking options like special Kyurem have seen less usage. This is an effect that can also be observed when looking at older breakers too - Wellspring lost a ton of usage, and even mons like Roaring Moon seem to be significantly less popular than they were in their previous metagame. With the meta's speed control standards increasing, it becomes harder and harder to find mons that have a chance of sweeping/breaking through multiple pokemon, while mons that attempt to wall their opponents are relatively unaffected. I expect this effect to mellow over time, as people should eventually figure out the most broken offensive sets and team structures.
Here is the team I've liked the most so far in the meta, enjoy it for as long as it's legal I guess.
