My personal feeling depending on what I know about Pep's personality.
It's pretty obvious that the rumors that Pep already signed a contract at City/Chelsea/whoever are wrong, since there still isn't a decision wether or not he will stay in Munich. Also before he signed Bayern in 2012 all the media was talking about the Premier League, while I already thought that he will come to Bayern, since it was a perfect fit.
Even if he does not expand his contract I think he will more likely go to Italy or even take a nationalteam, because going to England, especially as Mourinho's successor at Chelsea doesn't seem like Pep to me. Also he already had the option to go to City/Chelsea/United, when he signed in Munich, so why would he leave Bayern for them now.
Maybe I am wrong and Guardiola will surprise me with his decision, we'll see