CAP 33 - Part 7 - Stat Spread Submissions

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Korski

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Your specialized spreads would be made more EV efficient with a +speed nature because your speed is already so high you get more mileage in raw stats out of that +10%. The same benchmarks on your meowscarada spread can be met with 172 SpAtk / 96 Spe and a timid nature, leaving 44 EVs on the table, or 11 raw stat points.

Same with your Iron Valiant Spread, a calm nature on a low special defense stat is very inefficient, the same benchmarks can be reached with 164 SpDef EVs / 40 Spe EVs and a timid nature, so you're leaving 64 EVs on the table, or 16 raw stat points.
Oh, nice, that's valuable insight. I probably should have spent a few extra minutes doing that step, but I didn't! So, thank you. With an extra 44 EVs, the Meowscarada spread could potentially run 240 Def / 172 SpA / 96+ Spe to be more beefy or 160 Def / 252 SpA / 96+ Spe to have more confident damage output. With the extra 64 EVs, the Iron Valiant spread could go up to 252 Def / 52 SpA / 164 SpD / 40+ Spe for a solid mixed bulk build, or it could put it all in Speed and clear the Meowscarada tier. These are good options to have!

I think formulating these value vs. opportunity cost EV build considerations is a great exercise for a concept like this. I'd be curious to see if/when the return on speed investment diminishes vs. defensive or even offensive investment, or if it comes down to more scenario-based or team composition-based decision-making while teambuilding.
 
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Oh, nice, that's valuable insight. I probably should have spent a few extra minutes doing that step, but I didn't! So, thank you. With an extra 44 EVs, the Meowscarada spread could potentially run 240 Def / 172 SpA / 96+ Spe to be more beefy or 160 Def / 252 SpA / 96+ Spe to have more confident damage output. With the extra 64 EVs, the Iron Valiant spread could go up to 252 Def / 52 SpA / 164 SpD / 40+ Spe for a solid mixed bulk build, or it could put it all in Speed and clear the Meowscarada tier. These are good options to have!

I think formulating these value vs. opportunity cost EV build considerations is a great exercise for a concept like this. I'd be curious to see if/when the return on speed investment diminishes vs. defensive or even offensive investment, or if it comes down to more scenario-based or team composition-based decision-making while teambuilding.
In terms of raw stats, with your spread specifically, as long as your speed benchmark is 354 or higher, you'll get the most out of a timid nature. Simply because the speed is so much higher than every other stat. With no investment but a timid nature you go from 322 to 354, 32 whole points, or 128 EVs. The only time you'll not run a +speed nature is if you've got bulk benchmarks or offensive benchmarks that require a different nature / your speed benchmark requires very little to no investment.

The base speed is by default so high that you get so much mileage out of that 10% boost comparatively (shame you can't do +HP lol). You're never gonna get 32 extra points from any other nature because the most you'll get from other natures is +23 in defense / +27 special attack / +20 in special defense. Mons with more relatively even stat distributions will have more comparable tradeoff when it comes to natures. This isn't a bad thing it's literally just because the speed stat is so high that you get more mileage of an uninvested stat with a +nature than a lot of mons ever get with any of their stats fully-invested. A spread with the same tankiness ratings but with lower HP and higher defensive stats might be able to get comparative mileage vs their speed stats, but if the base speed is 143, you need higher than 111 in a stat for it to ever begin to tradeoff with speed.
 

quziel

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Final Submission

HP:
80 / Atk: 32 / Def: 111 / SpA: 88 / SpD: 99 / Spe: 125
PS: 51.28 / 80
SS: 114.79 / 125
PT: 114.40 / 115
ST: 104.11 / 115
BSR: 558.83 / 560
BST: 535 / 1530

Penalty Moves: Scald (-5 BSR)
Required Moves: Moonblast, 50% Recovery, Thunder Wave, Encore
Optional Moves: Haze

Speed: I wanted us to be a well, fast wall, and that requires actually outrunning stuff. Specifically, I felt we needed to outrun Roaring Moon, given its status as a very scary mon, and how our typing matches into its typing. By outrunning it, and OHKOing it, we either force it to switch out and thus waste its Booster Energy, or stay in and Terastalize, in both cases we gain a fair bit while the Moon user doesn't gain a ton. Now, we don't really match well into Tera-Flying Roaring Moon, but I digress. I parked at 125 because this gives us a bit of flexibility if new threats become relevant, as stuff like Gren/Torn/Ribombee/etc. may, but this also serves to give us approx 48 bonus EVs to play with.

Physical Bulk: The main calc I'm benchmarking on is Hemogoblin's Espeed [1], which does 40% to us with Multiscale down. This enables the following interaction: we switch in on Extreme Speed, perhaps aimed at a friendly Dragapult, taking <20%, the next turn Hemogoblin Espeeds again, doing 40%, while we recover, putting our total HP at 90%, this is repeated once again, and we end the turn at 100%, having used up 3 Espeeds, and 2 Recovers. This also ensures that Hemogoblin cannot 3hko us through Multiscale, giving a lot of ambiguity to our turns.

Some other relevant calcs follow. Vs Tera Flying Roaring Moon [2] our matchup admittedly isn't perfect, but given the constraints I think its about as good as we can manage. If we have Twave I think we arguably win this matchup, as even in the worst case, where they have Tera available, and we have swapped into Dragon Dance, we still have a pretty solid chance of coming out alright, as we can try to spam recover vs a paralyzed Moon and get multiscale back a fair percent of the time. We always get 2HKO'd by Zamazenta's Choice Band Wild Charge, even with Multiscale up, unless we decide to Terastalize ourselves, but no other moves, eg Heavy Slam [4] struggle to reliably break us. The matchup into Cawmodore is a bit iffy, but is still arguably in our favor to at least heavily disrupt it. If we have Encore we can force it to Bullet Punch us, which does definitely break us, but we'd still have gotten Encore off. Any other move we can aim to just live a BP and Scald it for ~50.

[1] 252+ Atk Pixilate Hemogoblin Extreme Speed vs. 252 HP / 48 Def CAP 33: 123-145 (33.7 - 39.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
[2] +1 252 Atk Protosynthesis Tera Flying Roaring Moon Acrobatics (110 BP) vs. 252 HP / 48 Def Multiscale CAP 33: 161-189 (44.2 - 51.9%) -- 14.1% chance to 2HKO
[3] 252 Atk Choice Band Zamazenta Wild Charge vs. 252 HP / 48 Def CAP 33: 244-288 (67 - 79.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
[4] 252 Atk Choice Band Zamazenta Heavy Slam (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 48 Def CAP 33: 162-191 (44.5 - 52.4%) -- 21.5% chance to 2HKO
[5] +6 252 Atk Cawmodore Bullet Punch vs. 252 HP / 48 Def CAP 33: 180-213 (49.4 - 58.5%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO


Special Attack: With my physical bulk chosen, I moved onto ensuring that I could actually beat Hemogoblin, or well, actually 2HKO it with Scald [6]. While I only benchmarked against the current mixed speed spread, I think this is fair; even if it invests way more its still not guaranteed to be safe, and its hardly able to heal much vs us. This also ensures the following; Dragapult is generally KO'd after 2 rounds of SR by Moonblast [7], Roaring Moon is OHKO'd by Moonblast if it doesn't Tera [8], Iron Valiant is KO'd by Moonblast after SR [9], provided it doesn't click CM. Great Tusk is easily 2hko'd by anything we want to click as well. Our performance into bulkier mons is bad, but we're a wall ourselves. Equilibra [10] and Venomicon [11] care exceptionally little about our damage, as expected.

[6] 0 SpA CAP 33 Scald vs. 76 HP / 0 SpD Hemogoblin: 170-204 (50 - 60%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
[7] 0 SpA CAP 33 Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Dragapult: 234-276 (73.8 - 87%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
[8] 0 SpA CAP 33 Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Roaring Moon: 364-432 (103.7 - 123%) -- guaranteed OHKO
[9] 0 SpA CAP 33 Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Iron Valiant: 276-326 (95.5 - 112.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
[10] 0 SpA CAP 33 Scald vs. 252 HP / 64+ SpD Equilibra: 116-140 (28.4 - 34.3%) -- 100% chance to 4HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
[11] 0 SpA CAP 33 Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Venomicon: 60-72 (16 - 19.2%) -- possible 6HKO


Special Bulk: Here the main thing I focused on was ensuring that we can tank repeated hits from non-Tera'd Walking Wake [12] with Drought up. This required a minimum of 80/92, but that also put me at ~550 BSR, and I wanted to add a bit more strength to really be competitive. I was searching for other benchmarks, and came across both Krilowatt and Iron Moth. Krilowatt requires 80/91 to outheal Tbolt with Multiscale active, and Iron Moth required 80/99 [14] for us to pull off the "Tank Sludge, hit with Twave, and then Heal back to Multi" feat, so I decided to park there, as I had a bit of BSR left.

Some additional interesting calcs that I didn't explicitly factor into my benchmarking. CM Valiant [15] also falls to the Twave Recover combo, being unable to break through Multi without getting +2, though it can also just encore us into recover and win that way ig? Dragapult is still a bit too strong, being able to outdamage recovery if Multi isn't up [16]. Venomicon can't outdamage Multi [17], but if it ever gets a Poison, and it will, it just trivially beats us. This is not a winning matchup.

[12] 244 SpA Choice Specs Walking Wake Hydro Steam vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD CAP 33 in Sun: 144-169 (39.5 - 46.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
[13] 252 SpA Life Orb Krilowatt Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Multiscale CAP 33: 153-181 (42 - 49.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
[14] 132 SpA Iron Moth Sludge Wave vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Multiscale CAP 33: 153-181 (42 - 49.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
[15] +1 252 SpA Iron Valiant Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Multiscale CAP 33: 141-166 (38.7 - 45.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
[16] 252 SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD CAP 33: 165-195 (45.3 - 53.5%) -- 37.1% chance to 2HKO
[17] 0 SpA Venomicon Sludge Bomb vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Multiscale CAP 33: 112-133 (30.7 - 36.5%) -- 64.5% chance to 3HKO


HP/Def/SpD Split: As you can see, I have a 0.8/1.1/1.0 style bulk spread, which is very BST efficient for a given PT/ST split. The exact choices of HP/Def/SpD are functionally just down to aesthetics here, as I don't have any draining moves, nor Strength Sap, so I elected to just go with what I felt to be an aesthetically pleasing split here, while still ensuring that max HP was an efficient EV spread.

Set I assumed while benchmarking:
CAP 33 @ Heavy-Duty Boots
Ability: Multiscale
Tera Type: Fire
EVs: 252 HP / 48 Def / 208 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Scald
- Moonblast
- Recover
- Encore / Thunder Wave

Per usual, this is just my view of the mon, and if this spread is chosen, my view is just as valid as anyone else's.
 
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Final Submission

75/48/104/83/104/131 BST: 545
PS: 75.16
SS: 115.92
PT: 104.52
ST: 104.95
BSR: 555.00

Required Moves: Surf, Moonblast, 50% Recovery, Thunder Wave, Encore
Optional Moves: Scald (-10 BSR), Haze, Strength Sap, Hydro Pump


This spread aims to get the most out of 33's speed stat, not only by using it's maximum speed to get the jump on many threats, but also while being able to delegate its speed stat in different ways, allowing it to increase its bulk and change how it deals with threats while still being able to outspeed most of the mons it wants to outspeed. Furthermore, it aims to have strong defensive abilities while still keeping enough of an offensive presence to threaten and scare many of the offensive pokemon in the metagame, most notably Great Tusk, Walking Wake, Hemogoblin and Iron Valiant.

Speed
131 Speed's primary goal is to allow max speed 33 to outspeed Stratagem, letting 33 get the jump on it and potentially cripple it with Encore or Thunder Wave. Beyond that, then, 131 speed also allows 33 to outspeed the likes of Ribombee, Meowscarada, Roaring Moon, Cinderace and Iron Valiant, and even allows 33 to invest a bit more into it's defenses while still outspeeding these mons.


Physical Defense
with maximum HP investment, 75/104 physical bulk means that 33 cannot be 2hko'd from full by Great Tusk's Headlong Rush without setup or Choice Band, all the while still being able to 2hko it with Moonblast, even with minimal investment. this bulk means that Kingambit's Iron Head cannot 2hko from full without all five allies fainted or Swords Dance, the latter of which 33 can use to easily trap kingambit with Encore. This also allows 33 to always heal off an unboosted Hemo's espeed, and with defense investment, allow 33 to almost always heal back to full on Hemo while still having enough speed to outspeed the likes of Roaring Moon.

Special Defense
This special bulk allows 33 to survive many things, most notably bring able to survive even a Hydro Steam in sun from a Tera Water Walking Wake. It also allows 33 to never be 2hko'd by mixed Valiants Thunderbolt while easily OHKO'ing it back after with Moonblast, and even allowing 33 to take 2 specs Valiant Moonblasts with investment.

Special Attack
83 Special Attack allows 33 to always OHKO Great Tusk with Moonblast after Headlong Rush's SpDef drop, as well as OHKO mixed Valiant and guarantee an OHKO on non-mixed Valiant variants after spikes.
 
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Da Pizza Man

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Thanks to everyone who participated in the thread. I'm very satisfied with the amount of participation that we got, even if it was relatively low compared to a few other past projects. Given the overall small number of spreads submitted this time and the overall similarity between many of them, I have decided that going with a smaller slate would be appropriate, which seems to be a reoccurring theme with this process. Before I get into the slate, I want to remind users that any Defining Moves listed are not set in stone and may undergo reevaluation when we reach the Moveset Stage. Now, with that out of the way, let's not waste any more time.

kenn
HPAtkDefSpASpDSpePSSSPTSTBSR
66581049710413178.44124.6197.9998.52554.99
Optional Defining Moves: Scald, Hydro Pump, Strength Sap, Haze

Starting with what I believe is the most average spread of the bunch, kenn's spread serves as a general check to various offensive threats rather than a strong counter to a select few. This spread to me is very reminiscent of Rotom-Wash, who has seen success in pretty much every prior generation of OU/CAP and has seen decent use earlier this generation. One notable aspect of kenn's spread is his decision to boost his spread's Special Attack to near the limit, giving it an easy way to force out many of the offensive threats that CAP33 would be expected to deal with. Backing up this ideology as presented in his spread, kenn supplements his spread with the ability to OHKO key threats, which may seem anti-concept on a surface level. However, I think that this is something that actually works really well with the concept at hand, as it is very much representative of defensive Pokemon in the modern metagame, with most, if not all of them, having some form of way of forcing out offensive Pokemon, whether it be through offensive presence or through crippling status moves, with this spread obviously focusing more on the former than the latter.

Brambane
HPAtkDefSpASpDSpePSSSPTSTBSR
1264070937012659.63120.16101.79102.26553.80
Optional Defining Moves: Haze

Going into this stage, one of the things that surprised me the most was the lack of high HP spreads. In the past, we have seen plenty of success from Pokemon such as Amoongus and Astrolotl as defensive Pokemon thanks to their high HP stats, allowing for more flexibility when creating different EV Spreads. Knowing this, I decided that it would be appropriate to have at least one high HP spread represented on the slate, and even with the low number of high HP spreads, Brambane's spread stood out to me the most. Brambane decided to take a fairly interesting approach in regards to his spread, choosing to sacrifice his speed to lean into the aforementioned flexibility of bulk that is granted by having high HP. Of particular note, Brambane notes that his spread was purposefully designed to make sure that Ogerpon always has a chance to OHKO at +2 even through Multiscale, so as to encourage speed investment rather than dumping all of our EVs into our bulk. This was a very smart idea, as it not only plays into our concept beautifully but also acts as a nice balancing measure that we can always fall back on for later stages of the project.

Zetalz
HPAtkDefSpASpDSpePSSSPTSTBSR
8242889010513361.85117.3095.10110.84549.46
Optional Defining Moves: Scald, Knock Off, Hydro Pump, Haze

Continuing the theme of flexibility, Zetalz takes a slightly different approach from Brambane, choosing to instead place most of the spread's customizability in its speed. This is seen with his fairly unconventional choice of speed, being just enough to outspeed offensive Great Tusk without investment, allowing the spread to sacrifice some of its speed for better defensive capabilities. An argument can be made that this is rather anti-concept, but I personally do not really think this is all that much of an issue, as Zetalz's choice to go with a fairly conservative defensive spread heavily encourages us to invest in our speed. Another aspect of Zetalz's spread that I like, which I haven't seen represented too much in other spreads that were submitted, was the emphasis on special bulk rather than physical bulk. While there seems to be a common sentiment in the thread that physical bulk is a bit more valuable than special bulk, many of the Special Attackers that we would want to switch in on, such as Dragapult and Walking Wake, are incredibly strong attackers, so giving his spread ability to take these threats on without relying too much on Multiscale was a smart move by Zetalz to both stand out from the crowd and give his spread a solid niche.

Wulfanator
HPAtkDefSpASpDSpePSSSPTSTBSR
50591379213311978.18117.52110.02107.55564.01
Optional Defining Moves: Scald

Wulfanator took a very interesting approach with his spread, choosing to sacrifice his spread's speed to focus heavily on the bulk of this spread, the exact opposite direction that many other users took with their spreads. That's not to say that Wulfanator's spread is slow, though, as it is still fast enough to outspeed key offensive threats such as Cawmodore and Iron Valiant. To make up for this lost speed, Wulfanator elected to use the bonus granted to his spread to push both of the limits that I had set to our bulk nearly to their limits, alongside having a fairly respectable Special Attack stat capable of OHKOing Iron Valiant with Moonblast without any investment.

StarFalcon555
HPAtkDefSpASpDSpePSSSPTSTBSR
66521168611613972.35113.32107.72108.11552.20
Optional Defining Moves: Hydro Pump, Haze, Knock Off

StarFalcon555 took a fairly conservative approach with her spread, which in a way serves as the antithesis of Wulfanator's spread. At 139 Speed, StarFalcon555 has the highest speed of any spread that made it onto the slate and the third highest speed of any spread that was submitted in general, being just enough to outspeed Zamazenta. In exchange, Starfalcon555 chose to be fairly conservative regarding both the bulk and power of her spread, having both the overall lowest Special Attack and being one of only two spreads to not have 110 or more points in either PT or ST. That being said, Starfalcon's spread is still strong enough to hit some crucial benchmarks for this project, such as the ability to OHKO Iron Valiant after Stealth Rock damage and 2HKO Hemogoblin with Surf. In regards to bulk, much of what can be said about kenn's spread applies to StarFalcon555's spread as well, choosing to rely on having more mixed defensives that allow it to serve as a more general check rather than a specialized counter.

quziel
HPAtkDefSpASpDSpePSSSPTSTBSR
8032111889912551.80114.79114.40104.11558.83
Optional Defining Moves: Scald, Haze

Last but not least, we have a fairly last-minute submission from our previous Stats Leader, quziel. quziel decided that the best approach to his spread was to design it around two critical matchups, those being Roaring Moon and Hemogoblin. This resulted in a spread with incredibly high physical bulk, capable of avoiding a critical 3HKO with the assistance of Multiscale. To assist in this matchup, quziel chose to go with a fairly modest amount of Special Attack, capable of just being able to 2HKO Hemogoblin with Scald and OHKO Roaring Moon with Moonblast. That being said, while his spread is primarily designed around combating physical attackers, it still has a fairly strong matchup into special attackers such as Dragapult and Walking Wake, something I mentioned in my description of Zetalz's spread as key matchups and something I was worried about many of the other physically oriented spreads being unable to get around.

Tagging ausma for approval
 
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