Research Is there a correlation between starter Pokémon’s success in single player and multiplayer?

[bdt2002]

I haven't posted a new thread here in OI in quite some time, so I'd like to think it's good to be back to doing so. I actually have a second thread for something completely different I want to post at a later date, but for now, let's just focus on this thread. I've been a fan of team building analysis and various kinds of tier lists and rankings for as long as I can remember, and one of my favorite parts of analyzing a new generation of Pokémon is by comparing and contrasting the region's new starter Pokémon. Pokémon games very rarely stray away from the classic Grass/Fire/Water type triangle for their starter Pokémon options, games such as Let's Go and the GameCube saga not withstanding. It's a great way to help introduce new players to the standard gameplay, but as I'm sure most of us are all aware of, not every starter Pokémon is equal.

In OI's "In-Game Tier Lists" sub-forum, users have spent countless hours playtesting Pokémon in in-game playthroughs to verify how effective and efficient these Pokémon are relative to the competition. Not only does this playtesting increase the games' replayability, but as a greater sample size of data is collected, more and more accurate information can be discovered over time. In regards to the various starter Pokémon across the series, however, I've started noticing a couple patterns here and there. I decided to create this thread in an effort for us to work together and hopefully try and answer the two big questions I have about these patterns:

1. How much of a correlation, if any, exists between a starter Pokémon's performance in single player and multiplayer/competitive play?
2. How much does the removal of HMs from Generation 7 onwards impact the viability of the Water-Type starters?

The first question may sound a bit counter-intuitive at first, as single player and multiplayer gameplay are obviously going to support very different perks wielded by certain Pokémon. Sinnoh's resident Electric-Type Luxray immediately comes to mind as a Pokémon great for single player that hasn't been able to keep up in multiplayer, with Unova's spiky durian Ferrothorn being a great example I can use for the opposite of this. However, I would like to start our discussions off by giving you guys two lists of Pokémon to look at. This first list is a list of the highest ranked fully evolved starter Pokémon from each region in their home generations' Smogon usage tiers, including any ties.



This second list, on the other hand, is a list of what casual players have historically considered to be the best fully evolved starter Pokémon for in-game playthroughs in each region within the same home generations.

or (also if you're wondering, is best monke on both lists)

Disclaimer: These lists do not current include the starter Pokémon from Paldea, as this is still the current generation and more data needs collected. Paldea's unique "three storyline" nature further complicates things for the region's selection as well.

Those lists aren't counting Pokémon from remakes that would also fit the same criteria, either, such as FRLG Charizard (Better Sp. Atk carried over from Gen 2 and has a better movepool), HGSS Feraligatr (loves Gen 4's physical-special split and can still use HMs), and ORAS Blaziken (this one should be self-explanatory, this thing is freaking gross). BDSP's separate OU tier also breaks the pre-existing tie between Infernape and Empoleon in multiplayer, for what it's worth. I really want to know what you guys think of this information so we can continue this discussion along. I look forward to reading your guys' input, and thanks in advance for reading this thread. Take care!

 

[faint]

Your question in the title and question(s) in the thread are different and make providing you the answers you seek quite difficult.

 

[Lectrys]

I can provide at least a little insight into answering this (warning: leans heavily into my experience playing and watching Pokemon, so only 3 generations' worth of data from my end):

"How much of a correlation, if any, exists between a starter Pokémon's performance in single player and multiplayer/competitive play?"

The example of Incineroar not showing up in the OP despite tearing up VGC so hard that it gets partnered with restricted legendaries tells us this: any Pokemon leaning too hard into its hidden ability or other hard-to-obtain-in-game features suffers in in-game/single-player compared to multiplayer/competitive. Part of me is shocked that Cinderace and Greninja rank that highly in-game because they are boosted to Ubers by their hidden abilities (at least before Gen 9 for both and in any generation not filled with Toxapexes for Greninja), but I suppose Greninja's wide coverage and Cinderace's high-powered moves and U-turn save the day. Rillaboom performed decently well for my nephew in Pokemon Sword, although our ending moveset got walled by Pawniard (but hit Aegislash super-effectively). However, my sister being unwilling to buy DLC and therefore give us access to Isle of Armor move tutors and Ability Capsules means that the mediocre-speed Rillaboom in in-game is a shadow of its OU self - Rillaboom loves Grassy Surge and priority Grassy Glide in OU, and odds are good that it's not getting any of those in-game.

From my vantage point, I think evaluating the in-game worth of the Gen 9 starters could be a tricky one. Quaquaval is probably the clear loser in both multiplayer/competitive and in-game/single-player - mediocre speed, not the best bulk, might actually want Swords Dance in in-game compared to actually being able to lean on Moxie in competitive (note that my nephew has still not found any Ability Capsules yet despite taking down all but 3 Team Star bases and 1 gym, with us projected to evolve our first Gimmighoul this weekend). I've seen nothing but praise for Meowscarada in in-game - it fits the well-performing Greninja/Cinderace mold as a fast and reasonably hard-hitting pivot, and it's the favourite of speed-runs from what I've read. There's also some correspondence to Meowscarada's similarly great performance in OU as a fast and disruptive pivot, and Meowscarada similarly sometimes not using its hidden ability in OU helps with that correspondence. However, my nephew picked Skeledirge upon hearing from me that it's a part-Ghost-type that lets him run from all his wild fights (unlike his hair-raising experience making the grass starter run from the majority of wild fights in Pokemon Sword), and Ghost-types being unable to be trapped looks shockingly valuable in-game (at least as a way to save money and time). Sure, we could have caught a Gastly early-game and tried leading with it, but my nephew has never changed leads. Skeledirge has also proven bulky enough to live a super-effective coverage move or two in-game, although it's so slow that I will be pushing to evolve Gimmighoul in time for Pokemon Violet's Ghost gym this weekend (Skeledirge notably did not outspeed the Psychic gym's Espathra despite being higher-levelled, and then Espathra Shadow Balled it). There might be some correspondence to Skeledirge's decent performance in OU and even Ubers as a wall - in-game Pokemon don't stat boost as often as competitive Pokemon do, so us being unable to make Skeledirge Unaware affects its in-game performance surprisingly little. And being unable to be trapped also helps in competitive Pokemon. In-game letting us feed Potions of varying sizes to anyone we want also helps compensate for our Skeledirge's inability to get Slack Off in our playthrough (and therefore probably in a lot of single-player runs).

 

[bdt2002]

Your question in the title and question(s) in the thread are different and make providing you the answers you seek quite difficult.

In retrospect, I would have to agree. By the time you see this, I’ll probably have changed the thread title to something more accurate/fitting.

 

[ScraftyIsTheBest]

In general, I'd say no, there isn't necessarily a correlation between a starter's success in single player campaigns and their success in competitive, whether it be our unofficial metagames or the official VGC/Battle Spot Singles metagames.

In general, the most popular starter for a casual playthrough is not always the best one in terms of actual performance, but in many times casual players choose their starter based on how much they like the starter from a design standpoint. Greninja in Kalos, for instance, is indeed a powerhouse in competitive thanks to Protean (and in Gen 7 the ability to be unpredictable between Protean Greninja and Ash-Greninja). However, it's mainly so popular among casual players because it's marketable, has a standout design, and in general is something that's very popular among players because it's so marketed and likable from a design standpoint. It's on the high end of the popularity scale among the likes of Lucario, Sylveon, Charizard, Pikachu, and whatnot. The fact that it's in Smash 4 and Smash Ultimate and also got a starring role in the XY season of the main anime thanks to being Ash's ace added to its marketability. And come on, I say this as someone who unironically loves Greninja: who doesn't love a badass ninja frog?

In-game performance wise, Greninja actually isn't that much of a standout: it's still a good Pokemon thanks to its good movepool, high Speed to strike first, and good offensive stats, but it does not significantly outperform Delphox and Chesnaught for a playthrough of XY. If anything, Delphox is arguably stronger in-game than Greninja thanks to Calm Mind, strong Special Attack and good Speed, and strong STABs with Flamethrower/Mystical Fire and Psychic, combined with decent coverage moves to top it off, and this is all despite being the least viable of the Kalos trio competitively (which is more due to it being a bit generic and outclassed by other Fire-types who are stronger like Chandelure and Heatran in higher tiers). Chesnaught is also a strong pick for in-game, and it's not bad in competitive at all, because of its good bulk, good offensive movepool and Bulk Up/Swords Dance, and good support movepool with Leech Seed, Spiky Shield, and whatnot if you want to play a more passive/defensive style. So in general the three Kalos starters, while having strong differences in viability in competitive, are all relatively even with each other for an in-game playthrough of X and Y, and are all pretty much equally solid in-game, even if not game breaking.

In general popular starters among casual fans are usually more picked for design appeal than for actual performance. The Alola starters, while two of them (especially Incineroar) enjoy competitive success, and Decidueye and Incineroar both enjoy marketability thanks to other media, all three suffer unilaterally for SM/USUM playthroughs because of their slow Speed combined with the Alola games' very high power level which means they often do not really shine: they are almost always forced to take hits first before striking back and oftentimes are an extreme drain on recovery resources like Potions and Revives due to the constant need to heal them either during or after battles for the campaign. Decidueye is actually the weakest of the three for an in-game run because Alola is so horrifically hostile to it that it never ends up excelling at any point: yet it's the most popularly used for casual players because Decidueye is a cool sniper while its base form Rowlet is one of the cutest, most lovable Pokemon to ever exist and is up there with Piplup and Bulbasaur as one of the most popular base form starters.

Primarina is by far the best of the three for an Alola playthrough, and as much as I love Primarina it's frankly carried hard for in-game by being part Fairy-type, and we all know that Fairy is bar none one of the strongest types in the game on par with Dragon and Steel. Of course, Water in and of itself is a powerful type, which helps, and Primarina has great power from its STABs and high Special Attack combined with decent Special Bulk. It's good of course, and manages to be an S tier Pokemon, but it's not game-breaking for a playthrough.

When you look at starters, individually oftentimes Pokemon that are either the most successful competitively and/or the most popular/marketable one do not necessarily perform the best of their trio in-game.

Venusaur is both the strongest of the Kanto starters in-game and the most consistently successful in competitive, but Charizard is often more popularly used because Charizard is very obviously marketable: Charizard ironically has been the weakest for a Kanto playthrough because Kanto is just mean to it, and competitively at times it's the weakest of the three, and in VGC it has enjoyed very high highs and very low lows, while here in our metagames it was always at its best when it had its Mega Evolutions, nowadays it only sees use in higher tiers as a nuke on sun teams, which is innately a situational niche at best, while outside if it, the base form of Charizard has usually languished in NU or PU because of its severe Stealth Rock weakness and not offering enough to justify the level of team support it needs to succeed compared to better Fire-types.

The main starters who have enjoyed the best competitive success in their debut generations and in their flagship region games at the same time are Swampert, Infernape, and incidentally Emboar, the latter due to Gen 5 starters never having their hidden abilities released (with them Serperior far outclasses Emboar competitively). Infernape and Swampert came from a time when Hidden Abilities weren't a thing, and for their era they enjoyed excellent qualities that made them great both competitively and in-game at the time: Infernape boasted high Offensive stats and Speed combined with a great offensive type combo and a strong movepool on both sides to sweep with: it also enjoys the benefit of being one of the only Fire-types in Sinnoh. These qualities also made it formidable in DPP OU, even if power creep eventually got the better of it in later generations. But those definitely made it stand out more, even though Empoleon and Torterra were still very good in their own right: Empoleon enjoys being part Steel, being bulky, and hitting hard on the special side which makes it a strong bulky Water-type in-game (and in DPP OU), and Torterra while weaker than the other two competitively from the beginning was still very much a good hard hitting tank for DPP. In general the Sinnoh trio was very strong all around thanks to great type combinations, good stat spreads, and strong movepools to work with: their awesome designs in my book were a plus as well.

Swampert was a great tank in Gen 3+4 competitive because of good all round bulk (110/90/90 is dope), good firepower, and Water/Ground being a powerful type both offensively and defensively. These also made it successful in-game because it was that exceptional and consistent, and while Sceptile and Blaziken were good they both had problems with their typings making them less favorable at certain points: Treecko performs poorly during the first half of Hoenn, the land segment, because of the many Fire, Flying, and Poison-types combined with its weak movepool before Leaf Blade, while Torchic as Blaziken has a weaker late game because Winona, Tate+Liza, and Wallace are all advantageous against it while most of the latter half of Hoenn is Water-types because it's almost all water. Blaziken does well against Steven admittedly, but that's an exception and not the rule.

I went on a bit of a rant, but I would say earlier generations had more of a correlation between which starter was the best in-game and in competitive, while it's less the case with later generations: the standouts like Greninja and Incineroar are slightly worse than Delphox and Primarina in-game, for instance, who are the actual best starters in-game arguably. The Galar starters are more unilaterally good in-game for SwSh but that's because they're all homogenously hard hitting and relatively fast (I personally find them practical but boring). Paldea, however, has a bit more of a correlation: Meowscarada is clearly the popular starter competitively and marketing wise, and so far in-game it's the strongest of the three. Quaquaval is fine from my understanding albeit not as exceptional as Meowscarada, while Skeledirge is decent but suffers from being slow, and cannot play the same defensive role it does here in Smogon Gen 9 OU.

A lot to say but there you go.

 

[Karxrida]

Not really.

In-game heavily favors fast and strong Pokémon that can cleave through NPCs with good STAB and maybe a couple coverage options. Competitive needs are far more varied and you can get away with running stuff like dedicated walls that would be agonizing to try to use for long route stretches.

I went on a bit of a rant, but I would say earlier generations had more of a correlation between which starter was the best in-game and in competitive

Define earlier, cause none of the Gen I starters are particularly amazing in OU and Gen II Meganium is fighting for "the worst starter ever" title while probably being the most usable of its trio for competitive.

 

[pika pal]

One thing I think is important to distinguish is that I tend to evaluate a Pokemon's competitive success by how well it does in the tier it ends up in as much as by what that tier actually is. My logic being a Pokemon that is (healthily) top of NU or RU is relatively well designed, just not given stats or a typing to push it higher, perhaps by design of where it is in the game (as you see with several Mid-game mons with 1 or 2 stages) or just having a better option even when it is not itself that bad.

I bring this up because Charizard has not been an OU staple without his Megas by any stretch, but past Gen 1 and 2, it tends to have a pretty defined if specific niche in whatever tier it is by usage (It's considered NU King in 4 and 5 for example), compared to Venusaur kind of bouncing around between UUBL's, UU, and OU depending on its Mega and the viability of Sun. And this is just talking about Smogon Singles vs things like VGC Doubles of course.

I guess to say that the correlation could depend on how you define "success" in multiplayer, since that in turn probably affects who the most successful starter is for that correlation to even be the case for one user vs another.