(2) New York Knicks versus (7) Philadelphia Sixers
“It’s like that Spongebob meme when Squidward is looking out the window and sees Spongebob and Ptraick having fun. Mikal is Squidward.” – Josh Hart on Mikal Bridges not being in the playoffs.
I’ve been back and forth with this series more than any other. Both teams are nearly evenly matched in my eyes even considering New York’s injured players. For me, much of this depends on Embiid’s health. He didn’t look right in the Play-in game, and his injury history in the playoffs is extensive. It also doesn’t help that New York is one of the most physically imposing teams to face. Hartenstein played Embiid single coverage in January, and New York lived to see another day. He may be solid enough to not require constant help which makes Maxey the only player who can create in those situations.
Problem is, I’m not entirely sure anyone on New York can effectively stop Maxey. They rank in the bottom ten in pick and roll defense, and Philadelphia has plenty of bodies to throw at Brunson. We can start with the length and tenacity of Batum all the way to Oubre Jr. Brunson is going to see a lot of hands, and he will need to navigate the offense much on his own without Randle. He’s certainly capable, but on his own against length?
The central question to me is who can win more of the battles when Brunson meets Embiid between the paint and three-point line? Brunson is going to see length, with hopes to attack Maxey as much as he can, while Embiid, who possibly is limited, will need to be comfortable guarding in space, deal with physicality and be a main part of the offense on the other end. There is no possible way to know who will be more comfortable in this series between the two stars, and New York still has Maxey to worry about. I feel Brunson will face better defenders than Maxey.
With that said, the outside margins feel nearly split too. New York is the #1 offensive rebounding team, but Embiid is the best rebounder there is despite Philadelphia not being such a hot defensive rebounding team. Rebounding is one area that can tip the scales in New York if they can manage it. Philadelphia is #4 at forcing turnovers while New York is closer to the bottom third. The difference in forcing turnovers also matches their respective paces, so if Brunson becomes fatigued or overworked and starts fumbling, that tips the scales in Philadelphia’s favor.
There truly is no indicator to me on who wins this. All is dependent on the health of Embiid and the comfort of the point guards on both ends. Whoever is more efficient on both ends between this trio will ultimately win the series, but I see it going the long haul. Flip a coin. As for me, I’ll just let my cat choose for me.
New York wins if: Embiid was clearly in no physical condition to handle playoff basketball. Brunson manages to get Batum and other lengthy defenders off him and successfully attack Maxey. New York beats Philadelphia on the glass, take care of the possessions, and slow the pace down significantly. The supporting cast of New York play good advantage basketball and physical defense.
Philadelphia wins if: Maxey cannot be contained. Embiid is at least 70%. Brunson is bothered by traps and lengthy screen navigators. Philadelphia’s supporting cast can score comfortably even if Embiid is not doubled.
New York in seven.
(2) Denver Nuggets versus (7) Los Angeles Lakers
“Being famous, I think some people like it. I don’t, really. When I finish my career, I really wish nobody knows me, and I really wish my kid or kids in the future really remember me as a dad, not as a basketball player.” – Nikola Jokic
Los Angeles has a better shot at this than people realize. I don’t expect them to win the series, but I also don’t expect a sweep. Russell has had an offensive awakening, LeBron is usually at his best in the first round unlike the injury he was hiding last year (or so he implied), and the team has found an offensive identity they haven’t had for years. They became a great offensive juggernaut while shooting lights out from behind the arc. LeBron has also improved as a jump shooter this year.
Los Angeles needs to keep Russell and Reaves on the floor as much as possible. Russell was played off the court last year, and it gave Murray chances to rest on defense. If both manage to stay on the floor longer, Murray worked significantly less on defense. Sure, LeBron can hunt Murray, but it’s more work for him if he not only has to worry about LeBron, but also Reaves/Russell.
Los Angeles was beat in transition every game in last year's series. This year, Los Angeles is 27th in transition defense. During the three regular season matchups, Denver was 27-10 in the last 5 minutes of each game. I don’t think Los Angeles will magically and substantially improve in these areas overnight, so their main hope is to outshoot Denver with their newly found offensive flow. Can they sustain that shooting over the course of a series?
Darvin Ham also hasn’t exactly solved the Jokic problem, but he seems intent on having Hachimura on him with Davis lurking off Gordon. The only other option that might have a chance of working is giving LeBron a shot.
These are only the possible adjustments I can think of from Los Angeles that can be worked on. It’ll still be a competitive series. Ultimately, I don’t trust Russell and Reaves to hold up defensively over the course of a series, and Murray’s defense isn’t enough to tip the scales for me.
Denver wins if: Jokic bullies AD again, beats him in transition again, kills them with passes again, and Russell/Reaves can’t stay on the court.
Los Angeles wins if: Everyone from LeBron to Russell to Reaves can’t miss. Los Angeles finds a way to improve their transition defense or keep Denver in a slugfest. Murray is exploited on defense. Denver’s lack of depth and bench shows its ugly head.
Denver in six.
