Announcement np: SV OU Suspect Process, Round 11 - We Didn't Start the Fire

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EP lando’s main use cases is counter lead glimm in my experience, and also beating zama down
Yeah, and I should be using it myself, been thinking on an EP defensive kon and forgot this one. But it was always good at that, and yet now it's a complete uno reverse on momentum when I burn it, in their favor. I'm sure it's been picking up as a popular mon in general (been fighting a frustrating amount of Glimmora), but I didn't initially consider how much of an amazing pick it is to GF in general...until it was spelled out to me, here lol.

Correlation doesn't equal causation, I get that, but these mons were always a pain, and it wasn't all that popular, at least as far as 1600's will go. Before I felt ok with preparing for EQ, then I had to prepare for either EQ or EP (whether Grassy T will help I.Hands or not), now I almost don't need to bother with EQ, as it's most likely EP. Hell I feel I've been seeing more Lando in general, but at this point it's most likely selective bias on my part.

On the other other hand, I've been seeing a healthy amount of grass lately, enough so I don't need to go outside anymore, and EP is good for that...
 
Breaking Swipe sets are starting to look like a fad, where mons like Zamazenta, Garganacl, Heatran and EP Landorus-T eat it alive. We're also starting to see Tera Fairy be a lot more popular as an option to counter it on mons like Great Tusk and some fringe Dondozo. Paralysis is also getting more popular than ever before with mons like TWave Dragapult, Clefable and Slowking-G all being great options at stopping it in it's tracks, with Tera Water GKing having a very good matchup into it as well. We've also seen a lot more phasing this week of SPL, with mons like Dragon Tail Dragonite, Roar Zamazenta and I've personally been using a little bit of Roar Great Tusk to decent success. These are all strategies that not only deal well with Gouging Fire, but most of the Offensive meta, you're not pigeonholded in having dedicated Gouging Fire counters because they're plentiful and deal with multiple other things as well!
GFire can adapt to a number of these options. Zama, ID Garg, and a number of setup mons get destroyed by Dragon Tail for example. Lando-T and Tera Fairy mons are fairly reliable answers, but given that these Pokemon need to handle a bunch of other shit like Gambit, Great Tusk, etc, it becomes a nuisance to handle them all, espicially given that mons like Dozo are likely being Knocked by one of GFire's partners, like Gliscor, Great Tusk or Roaring Moon. You wind up needing to run very specific sets on a lot of these Pokemon in order to truly check GFire as well, which is another issue. Stuff like Garg can't run Rocks, but has to run Curse or ID with Tera Fairy not to be setup fodder to Gouging (this is w/o Tera BTW), Great Tusk needs to be some bulky Tera Fairy set over something like Rocks, Tera Fairy Dozo is a MU fish vs Gambit since you are now weak to Iron Head, etc. All these constraints make it more difficult to not get farmed by other shit, whether it be Walking Wake, Ogerpon-W, Primarina, etc. as well as SD Scor (which can abuse many of the status mons used to check Gouging). The mere fact this mon has recovery lets it play a much stronger long game than Gambit or whatever threat, which is part of where its brokenness comes from imo.
 
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kumiko

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i will be brief here but i wanted to make a post on the matter rather than just watch.

i don't think this pokemon is broken. i don't even like to use it. i'm not a fan of sun in this meta because i feel like games come down to team preview, which easily could be the fact i haven't found a sun i've liked much yet. regardless, this makes me not like using it where i consider it to be at its strongest.

i don't like the dd sets. they feel like matchup fishes because you can't cover a bunch of pokemon that are very common all with the same set. 2 atks is never going to beat everything no matter what two moves you use, 3 atks is obviously going to run into numerous of its own problems. i also consider the need for mons strong preference toward flare blitz over heat crash to be a big detriment. like yeah it doesn't Have to use it but there are a lot of pokemon that can abuse heat crash considering how ungodly heavy a lot of the new pokemon are. dd has issues with its item slot. booster energy, leftovers, boots, and covert cloak all are very good but at different things, and each are sorely missed in some matchups. this is without even getting into the tera options, much less the fact dd sets are virtually required to tera to be any good.

this isn't necessarily being like, yeah, this pokemon sucks, but rather i really cannot consider a pokemon with these kinds of issues to be broken at all. i feel like it has a lot of potential and seeing the breaking swipe set pop up was very cool, but the sudden jump from it being Not Used to being tested with a good backing supporting its ban is very similar to me of the walking wake test last year. there is, frankly, no set that will be consistently very good into every team. it feels like more of a matchup fish-y pokemon that volcarona to me, and i would much sooner use it than gouging fire in this metagame. i would never consider it close to banworthy currently.
 
Been extremely busy so this is a bit of a last-minute post (sorry) but was asked to add my thoughts on Gouging, so here we go I guess. ATM I feel like SV is filled to the brim with an absurd amount of setup sweepers, and it feels super suffocating to try and build for. For me, Gouging is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, reasons behind this. It’s incredibly difficult to deal with having to think about the breaking swipe set, booster variants, and sun (less so this due to sun not being great in the metagame currently, but still, something to consider). The booster and swipe sets in particular are annoying because they can be a couple different teras (mainly ghost and poison) and can be different spreads (swipe can be jolly max speed hp, or the impish version, while booster can be max-max or have some bulk invest), making playing around it fairly annoying as well, as it has the ability to get past a lot of potential counterplay.

People could say these things can apply to other sweepers who use booster / abuse tera to gain free turns or snowball, but I think the main difference Gouging has, aside from its monstrous bulk compared to some of the other pokemon in the tier, is the ability to simultaneously dodge the best status for beating down physical attackers while also retaining its tera, having a free item slot (in the case of non-booster), and being able to boost its speed to avoid things such as encore a bit more freely. Pokemon such as Roaring-Moon, for an example of a booster mon, is susceptible to status due to being very one dimensional in its set (can’t really afford to run tera fire/poison, ghost is extremely rare), vulnerable to chip damage -> priority such as espeed revenging, as it generally cannot afford to fit roost. Kingambit, a noteworthy pokemon in the case of tera versatility and abusing setup, is forced to tera or run lum berry to avoid burn while also being unable to bypass things such as encore since it cannot boost its own speed, nor can it heal off damage it takes by itself. In addition, fire/dragon coverage is extremely brutal to have to switch into, making it so that Gouging only really needs 2 offensive moves while a lot of other sweepers feel forced to run 3 to make progress consistently throughout different matchups. This adds up to healing, boosting speed, strong bulk, solid coverage, and the ability to naturally bypass burn on a physical attacker, something that feels pretty unique in the tier, and I would say overbearing to consider in the builder when you pair these traits with the things mentioned earlier (item, tera, etc).

Overall, I really do believe the biggest issue with SV is the number of threats you need to be cautious of in the tier, and banning Gouging seems like the best first step to easing this problem.
 
Voting DNB after getting reqs. I agree with a lot of posts on GF's flaws, it has too much variance between being great vs a team to being very average or even a liability. HO pressures it a lot. Breaking Swipe lacks immediate power and is being figured out. The +Atk Proto Sun Band Tera Fire set completely sells out to beat fat teams in exchange for being worse vs offense and hazards, so on. Same with the Tera / Cloak combinations, you beat one common mon and lose to another common mon. The post above talks about what's supposed to set GF apart but for all its supposed flexibility I haven't seen a DD set that has nearly the immediate reward, coverage, and lack of required support of a Booster Moon Knock or a Kingambit boosted attack / SD, as with everything else about GF it is a tradeoff. The one set that felt frustrating to play was webs DD and I think that says more about me having not played since DLC1 and webs being a cheese build for eternity than GF as an enabler.

None of the teams I stole from OST / SPL to ladder had a 100% counter to GF, none of them used anything niche, but all of them had counterplay for multiple sets + the rest of the meta. Mons like Heatran, Tyranitar, and Excadrill feel underexplored and are answers to GF. Are we really theorymoning random GF sets to show it's broken? How do Chilling Water Alomomola or Body Press Dondozo show that GF is restrictive? Stall's MO is to counter specific threats and beat as much of the rest as possible. CM rocks Blissey and Tera Dark Amnesia Clodsire are far more egregious examples and both they and the threats they counter are fine.

On the argument "the right set can beat you" or "you have to trade parts of your team." If this was 2016 gen 6 I would've agreed but at some level unpredictability and tradeoffs are part of gen 9's identity top to bottom and should be treated as such within reason imo. The big examples are Kingambit and Volc but also GF, Zama, Valiant, Moth, Dragonite, Ogerpon, Darkrai, Manaphy, etc. Several of these I don't think are broken or solely held in check by brokens. Even for fat mons the right Tera / move on Dondozo, Clefable, Gliscor, Garg, Ghold can blank you. The meta is not one where you slap on a Toxapex-Tornadus core and call it a day or one where you always switch in your trusted wall, and it doesn't have to be. Gen 9 has a higher standard for what's banworthy beyond having the right set at the right time. There's many things that feel broken at first, some actually are broken while others are very good but become much more manageable in relatively short time. GF feels like the latter.
 
There is a negative percent chance after living through gambit we are genuinely arguing if this is broken or not right?

If this gets banned I'm gonna have to start getting requirements to vote so I can help fight against bad bans.

The offensive sweeper gets pivoted on by bulky Mons or hard walled by unaware walls but I don't think anyone is crying about that set so less said.

The bulky sweeper requires so much setup and good play just like any other bulky sweeper just to get the train started and even when it has started it takes 3 dragon dances to outspeed the whole meta can easily be encored gets revenged by bulky dragons or tera fairy requires spin support and tera to deal with toxic fears offensive tusk is taunt lando's son can't even consistently break dozo that is a myth you can beat it with dozo fears fast dragons is USELESS into HO I stg I prefer max defense burning bull work boots wall to the bulky set that is literally a gimmick to beat fat boots teams I have more success sweeping with reuniclus lmao (Hyperbole)

The sun band set is fun to use but it's sun lmao it is actually unusable outside of sun it misses the 1.3 1.5 and it's not the win condition so no tera either. Sun is neutered by so many common Mons. Glowking snow is painful mandatory 2 fire types with no boots means rocks just annihilate + rocky helmet chip. Forget about T-spikes or webs of those go up it's B.A.D. like Bloons td. Flash fire heatran Ceruledge tera water teapot (underrated tech). You need to remember on sun that it requires 2 support trash mons. Tork ESPECIALLY with no yawn is suffering imo it's so easy to set up special threats Infront of and the advent of taunt lando hurts it a tonne. But hat aswell. It prevents hazards then kills itself best case scenario. This thing is literally just wake redux we have been here before. "It 2 hit KO's dozo" "it 2 hit KO's blissey" insert spot the difference meme here lol even close and heatran are EXACTLY the same. It does the same thing wake was doing except it has WAY worse structural pressure for sun because it's a fire type and doesn't bring a unique offensive typing to sun.

It's super threatening but of course it is it takes 2 whole other Pokémon to setup. It's predictable and greedy and booster attack that can break dondozo is just begging to get revenge killed while booster speed doesn't kill everything. Sun as a playstyle makes this thing feel op your like damn I lost 4 Pokémon to that thing but at the end of the day you can still win by out offensing sun. The. Countless priority sweepers booster energy sweepers encore users and the big terastalization aswell as suns incessant need for well, sun make it a manageable playstyle. No single Pokémon can be broken on sun if sun isnt broken.

To better understand what I'm saying I'll take it to an absurdity. If to use calyrax shadow rider in OU you were forced to use 5 level 50 Pokémon you would NEVER see caly shadow rider. That is what sun gouging fire is. You have to use sun which has its own pitfalls as a team composition. If there was a way to successfully isolate that set and put it on EVERY single playstyle then that is a broken Pokémon or if sun was completely busted because that Pokémon gets 2-3 kills a game again ban it but it's not.

Stg if this gets banned ima be pissed. There is way worse shit in the tier now and even then I don't think anything actually NEEDS a ban maybe it could improve the meta maybe not. Honestly booster energy ban would do alot of good imo but then again maybe it wouldn't and dondozo unaware spam would destroy me every game. I just think booster speed creep his massively pigeon holed offense into priority and degenerate trashy gameplay.

This is just a ramble anyways nothing serious.
 

viivian

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got suspect reqs a while back so might as well

i believe gouging fire should be banned because of the combination of breaking swipe + DD allowing it to set up on literally every physical wall in the game, with breaking swipe lowering their attack to the point where even earthquakes from gliscor and headlong rushes from great tusk easily bounce off of it after just one breaking swipe. meanwhile it repeatedly sets up DD as you deal 30% with super-effective EQs. afraid of eating toxic from gliscor? tera poison. afraid of losing to ID zamazenta? tera ghost. you can also run tera fairy if you're afraid of getting revenge killed. garganacl isn't even super common anymore but if you're afraid of that you can just run covert cloak and use it as setup fodder. this set has two counters (skeledirge and heatran) and neither of them are particularly common anymore. and it's not like this set provides valuable defensive utility to the meta or anything, like the best you'll get from this thing is a mediocre volcarona check. the offensive sets are very difficult to switch in on as well but choice band sets are only ever seen on sun and offensive DD sets at least get soft-checked by dondozo and bulky great tusk (and needs outrage to get past dondozo). the fact that the defensive DD set can just bypass those mons outright is obscene and it is precisely why i think gouging fire should be banned
 
and it's not like this set provides valuable defensive utility to the meta or anything, like the best you'll get from this thing is a mediocre volcarona check.
in the defense of gouging fire, it does provide some valuable defensive utility to the meta. not the breaking swipe set in particular, or really any of the sets in common usage right now, but the mon in general has the potential to be a fantastic defensive staple. 105/121 physical bulk with reliable recovery, burn moves, an excellent speed tier for a defensive mon, a pretty good defensive typing, and i don't think anyone has tried out defense protosynthesis in sun or with booster energy but it seems like it'd give gouging good wall/tank potential, especially with sun buffing morning sun as well. it's also strong enough to not be passive while not being overwhelming if you don't have an attack boost. the main problematic elements are dragon dance and sunbreaker sets. without those, gouging would be a perfectly balanced defensive mon with good but non-overwhelming offensive potential, vaguely reminiscent of something like ting-lu (though obviously occupying a completely different role). but the way things are, the offensive sets are just too strong. i honestly really would've liked to keep this, and arch for that matter, if they didn't have such crazy snowballing or breaking potential (and for the record i actually do agree with ctc that a ban of electro shot instead of arch would have been better, and this isn't the only instance of a single signature/low-distribution move breaking a mon over the course of the gen, so a policy discussion is probably warranted if gen 10 has many similar cases)
 
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ausma

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:gouging-fire:

Gouging Fire is perplexing, so let’s chat about it.

I believe that, as a Pokemon, Gouging Fire brings some very compelling traits to the table that are without a doubt beneficial to the tier. Its defensive utility cannot be understated; its superb bulk, resistance profile, and great synergy with Tera are extremely valuable in checking Pokemon like Kingambit, most Volcarona, Roaring Moon, and a laundry list’s worth of physical Pokemon in general in a single slot. Most valuably however is that it balances this highly coveted defensive value with excellent and flexible offense. Its threatening offensive STABs/solid base Attack can do work into a vast majority of physical threats in the tier, and it has Dragon Dance to weaponize its elite blend of offense and defense and slot naturally onto offensive structures and provide them with highly coveted defensive utility. To top it off, it can’t be burnt either.

To me, the question really comes down to if it takes more than it gives. There is a reason it is being suspected after all; it has shown to have asinine firepower on the right compositions and can snowball using its great defensive profile in tandem with Tera to leverage sweeps. So, in this post, I’d like to break down its main suspect-worthy sets (defensive is completely fine lol), discuss checks, and then have a discussion about its overall effect on the tier.

Choice Band

Out the rip, I have to say it: Choiced sets are flashy but far from broken. A vulnerability to hazards, reliance on Sun, and leverage from opposing Tera greatly complicates usage of the Fire-type STAB that is easy to click on paper. Once it loses that spammable click, the opportunity cost of using your Tera just for power rears its ugly head. Sun thrives off of using its Tera for aggressive purposes, however most grant some degree of defensive utility to leverage future wallbreaking. Roaring Moon commonly runs Tera Steel with its Choice Band set, bolstering its Iron Head into Fairy-type Pokemon, but also uses it to get the jump on coveted targets by flipping around its weaknesses, namely to Moonblast. Walking Wake is the most famous example, using Tera Water to make Hydro Steam near unwallable, but also shedding its Dragon-type to drop weaknesses and more reliably handle Fairy- and opposing Dragon-type Pokemon 1v1. Unlike Gouging Fire however it does not have a Stealth Rock weakness and it actually gets to 1v1 most things it can’t as a result of the weakness changing.

For Gouging Fire, the defensive changes don’t matter as much and maintain its core issues. In practice, its Stealth Rock weakness undercuts its bulk hard, and it maintains its inherent vulnerabilities into Pokemon it wants to use its Tera to beat like Great Tusk or Landorus-T. This means that in practice it winds up mostly taking trades and/or being forced out, complicating re-entry. On the other hand, this style of Tera for Pokemon like Walking Wake tend to force an advantage more easily and attain 1v1s that can be beneficial for itself in the long term, which it can afford due to its lack of a Stealth Rock weakness. While it’s still an excellent wallbreaker, it can be reacted to more feasibly thanks to most checks being maintained post-Tera and it having its bulk cut into more often than other users. To make matters worse, it has to often sacrifice potential firepower (no pun intended) to improve matchups into offense through Proto Speed or preserve Tera for more efficient purposes. It is good but I believe your average defensive backbone that consist near always of Fire-type resistant Pokemon, revenge killers, and/or additional Fire-resistant Tera have the ability to handle it pretty handily.

Bulky Dragon Dance

This one is the weird one. This set requires Gouging Fire to take advantage of its bulk and typing in a bit of a weird way that I haven't really understood the ripple effects of, and its relationship with Tera complicates this further by essentially forcing most Pokemon to contest with its bulk more directly, but then a vulnerability to Burn opens. I’ve seen some truly nuts EV spreads for this Pokemon, especially on Breaking Swipe variants, and it really demonstrates how much of an elite balance of offense and defense it possesses as much as it can be difficult to evaluate in the vacuum of its other sets. I think this is probably Gouging Fire’s “best” set as it fits on many structures, possesses the blend of offense and defense that balances thrive from, and can beat a lot of things 1v1 to snowball. Is it the most broken? There is a difference, and that’s why we need to evaluate counterplay.

Compared to its more explosive counterparts, it has more stringent requirements to safely snowball, and even when the conditions are ripe it needs a lot of turns to get going. And when I say a lot, I mean a Lot. Because it has to combine minimal offensive invest with a low BP stab just to find even more turns to heal and click Dragon Dance, and only have one decently threatening move for the last slot, I’ve found that it’s actually rather straight forward to shut down. Bulky phasers, Knock Off, Taunt, status, and Encore deny this set, and all of these options permeate greatly in the metagame and can be executed even by some Pokemon that this set should theoretically 1v1 as a result of its turn consuming nature. Opposing Tera also amplifies this problem. If Breaking Swipe can’t be used into a Tera Fairy Kingambit for instance, it has the potential to lose the 1v1 if it hasn’t gotten enough Dragon Dance turns up. Skarmory with Tera can effortlessly phase it out. As one last example, Great Tusk is also theoretically 1v1’d, but this set’s war of attrition gameplan falters hard without Leftovers to help sustain it over a long period of time. Encore is also everywhere, including on Pokemon like Hisuian Samurott (which also runs Knock Off regularly), Iron Valiant (also runs Knock Off), or Hawlucha.

I think this set is gassed up in the way it is mostly because it has some scary credentials, but ultimately sets that require longer gameplans and can be contained for a decent bit can and usually are well-adapted to (barring Gen 8 Kyurem lmao). I’m not trying to say this set is bad, but more that its best forms of counterplay exist fairly organically as is in the metagame, and the more turns you need, the more leverage the opponent has to react and win the war of attrition with the right tools. In exchange, it brings many teams the balance of offense and defense that Gouging Fire excels at while taking good advantage of Dragon Dance to offer a win condition. Variants are not very different, with variants like Covert Cloak compromising the recovery of Leftovers and remaining vulnerable to Knock Off, and all generally maintaining the same weak points. I think this set is fine, and shares organic checks with Choice Band that often run the aforementioned types of moves and can, if nothing else, help position Pokemon that actually can use them (such as with Alomomola).

Offensive Dragon Dance

This is the set I’d probably call the closest to unhealthy, since it offers generally less breathing room as a result of its more promptly threatening nature and more volatile set options. It can make use of Booster Energy, Heavy-Duty Boots, or Air Balloon alongside two of Dragon STAB, coverage (Tera Blast or Earthquake), or Morning Sun. This can be pretty frustrating to deal with at times and does demand more respect on average due to it being able to handpick its checks to a more extreme degree.

However as a result of it aiming to berserk in a more direct manner, it winds up folding to reactive counterplay a bit more easily. Again, Pokemon like Great Tusk or Landorus-T do well in barring its setup for the most part pre-Tera (Air Balloon does better into them especially if they’re chipped already), and Rocky Helmet is more problematic as its reduced bulk makes damage stick in a more meaningful way. This makes Landorus-T in particular a pretty excellent blanket check; Rocky Helmet and Intimidate are serious hurdles that limit how often it can find that game winning position. Unlike Bulky Dragon Dance, there are the more demanding variables of Unaware and bulky Water-type Pokemon, the latter of which Tera can easily provide teams in a pinch.

Again, there’s a generally overlapping set of checks. Even if they range in effectiveness across the sets, all of the Pokemon have an option one way or another that reliably give them leverage into this set and force at most a trade if utilized haphazardly.

___

In conclusion, I hope this post gives you a bit more of an insight into the nature of Gouging Fire’s effects in-game and across the builder. I believe the fact that so many blanket checks exist for Gouging Fire that can overlap to check it and several other Pokemon make it a fairly manageable threat that provides more than it takes.

Regarding set diversity, I personally think that Tera in general is a reason there are no real counters to it, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. There are a lot of Pokemon in this metagame that generally require long term plans to check with weaknesses that possess effects that accumulate over time, and in general I think the same can be said for a lot of the more threatening Pokemon in the tier even without Tera. It’s more reasonable to stack means of progress into Gouging Fire given that its set variety doesn’t at all drastically change counterplay as much as people are saying. Progress against it can feasibly accrue over time or just mitigate it in general all while being pretty accessible and easy to slot onto teams for a bevy of other reasons regardless.

While threat saturation is a big variable and Gouging Fire undoubtedly contributes to it with its ability to force a potential Tera or effectively chip down walls for another dangerous sweeper, I personally don’t think Gouging Fire is the correct choice to ban in the context of threat saturation due to a combination of its otherwise healthy qualities and the fact that its checklist is far more manageable and even organically good in this metagame regardless. I think if we suspect anything else that Gouging Fire’s presence may even skew even closer toward positive.

With all of this in mind, I believe overall that Gouging Fire should not be banned.
 
:gouging-fire:

Gouging Fire is perplexing, so let’s chat about it.

I believe that, as a Pokemon, Gouging Fire brings some very compelling traits to the table that are without a doubt beneficial to the tier. Its defensive utility cannot be understated; its superb bulk, resistance profile, and great synergy with Tera are extremely valuable in checking Pokemon like Kingambit, most Volcarona, Roaring Moon, and a laundry list’s worth of physical Pokemon in general in a single slot. Most valuably however is that it balances this highly coveted defensive value with excellent and flexible offense. Its threatening offensive STABs/solid base Attack can do work into a vast majority of physical threats in the tier, and it has Dragon Dance to weaponize its elite blend of offense and defense and slot naturally onto offensive structures and provide them with highly coveted defensive utility. To top it off, it can’t be burnt either.

To me, the question really comes down to if it takes more than it gives. There is a reason it is being suspected after all; it has shown to have asinine firepower on the right compositions and can snowball using its great defensive profile in tandem with Tera to leverage sweeps. So, in this post, I’d like to break down its main suspect-worthy sets (defensive is completely fine lol), discuss checks, and then have a discussion about its overall effect on the tier.

Choice Band

Out the rip, I have to say it: Choiced sets are flashy but far from broken. A vulnerability to hazards, reliance on Sun, and leverage from opposing Tera greatly complicates usage of the Fire-type STAB that is easy to click on paper. Once it loses that spammable click, the opportunity cost of using your Tera just for power rears its ugly head. Sun thrives off of using its Tera for aggressive purposes, however most grant some degree of defensive utility to leverage future wallbreaking. Roaring Moon commonly runs Tera Steel with its Choice Band set, bolstering its Iron Head into Fairy-type Pokemon, but also uses it to get the jump on coveted targets by flipping around its weaknesses, namely to Moonblast. Walking Wake is the most famous example, using Tera Water to make Hydro Steam near unwallable, but also shedding its Dragon-type to drop weaknesses and more reliably handle Fairy- and opposing Dragon-type Pokemon 1v1. Unlike Gouging Fire however it does not have a Stealth Rock weakness and it actually gets to 1v1 most things it can’t as a result of the weakness changing.

For Gouging Fire, the defensive changes don’t matter as much and maintain its core issues. In practice, its Stealth Rock weakness undercuts its bulk hard, and it maintains its inherent vulnerabilities into Pokemon it wants to use its Tera to beat like Great Tusk or Landorus-T. This means that in practice it winds up mostly taking trades and/or being forced out, complicating re-entry. On the other hand, this style of Tera for Pokemon like Walking Wake tend to force an advantage more easily and attain 1v1s that can be beneficial for itself in the long term, which it can afford due to its lack of a Stealth Rock weakness. While it’s still an excellent wallbreaker, it can be reacted to more feasibly thanks to most checks being maintained post-Tera and it having its bulk cut into more often than other users. To make matters worse, it has to often sacrifice potential firepower (no pun intended) to improve matchups into offense through Proto Speed or preserve Tera for more efficient purposes. It is good but I believe your average defensive backbone that consist near always of Fire-type resistant Pokemon, revenge killers, and/or additional Fire-resistant Tera have the ability to handle it pretty handily.

Bulky Dragon Dance

This one is the weird one. This set requires Gouging Fire to take advantage of its bulk and typing in a bit of a weird way that I haven't really understood the ripple effects of, and its relationship with Tera complicates this further by essentially forcing most Pokemon to contest with its bulk more directly, but then a vulnerability to Burn opens. I’ve seen some truly nuts EV spreads for this Pokemon, especially on Breaking Swipe variants, and it really demonstrates how much of an elite balance of offense and defense it possesses as much as it can be difficult to evaluate in the vacuum of its other sets. I think this is probably Gouging Fire’s “best” set as it fits on many structures, possesses the blend of offense and defense that balances thrive from, and can beat a lot of things 1v1 to snowball. Is it the most broken? There is a difference, and that’s why we need to evaluate counterplay.

Compared to its more explosive counterparts, it has more stringent requirements to safely snowball, and even when the conditions are ripe it needs a lot of turns to get going. And when I say a lot, I mean a Lot. Because it has to combine minimal offensive invest with a low BP stab just to find even more turns to heal and click Dragon Dance, and only have one decently threatening move for the last slot, I’ve found that it’s actually rather straight forward to shut down. Bulky phasers, Knock Off, Taunt, status, and Encore deny this set, and all of these options permeate greatly in the metagame and can be executed even by some Pokemon that this set should theoretically 1v1 as a result of its turn consuming nature. Opposing Tera also amplifies this problem. If Breaking Swipe can’t be used into a Tera Fairy Kingambit for instance, it has the potential to lose the 1v1 if it hasn’t gotten enough Dragon Dance turns up. Skarmory with Tera can effortlessly phase it out. As one last example, Great Tusk is also theoretically 1v1’d, but this set’s war of attrition gameplan falters hard without Leftovers to help sustain it over a long period of time. Encore is also everywhere, including on Pokemon like Hisuian Samurott (which also runs Knock Off regularly), Iron Valiant (also runs Knock Off), or Hawlucha.

I think this set is gassed up in the way it is mostly because it has some scary credentials, but ultimately sets that require longer gameplans and can be contained for a decent bit can and usually are well-adapted to (barring Gen 8 Kyurem lmao). I’m not trying to say this set is bad, but more that its best forms of counterplay exist fairly organically as is in the metagame, and the more turns you need, the more leverage the opponent has to react and win the war of attrition with the right tools. In exchange, it brings many teams the balance of offense and defense that Gouging Fire excels at while taking good advantage of Dragon Dance to offer a win condition. I think this set is fine, and shares organic checks with Choice Band that often run the aforementioned types of moves.

Offensive Dragon Dance

This is the set I’d probably call the closest to broken, since it offers generally less breathing room as a result of its more promptly threatening nature and has more volatile set options. With Booster Energy, Heavy-Duty Boots, or Air Balloon alongside two of Dragon STAB, coverage (Tera Blast or Earthquake), or Healing. This can be pretty frustrating to deal with at times and does demand more respect on average.

However as a result of it aiming to berserk in a more direct manner, it winds up folding to reactive counterplay a bit more easily. Again, Pokemon like Great Tusk or Landorus-T do well in barring its setup for the most part pre-Tera (Air Balloon does better into them especially if they’re chipped already), and Rocky Helmet is more problematic as its reduced bulk makes damage stick in a more meaningful way. This makes Landorus-T in particular a pretty excellent blanket check; Rocky Helmet and Intimidate are serious hurdles that limit how often it can find that game winning position. Unlike Bulky Dragon Dance, there are the more demanding variables of Unaware and bulky Water-type Pokemon, the latter of which Tera can easily provide teams in a pinch.

Again, there’s a generally overlapping set of checks. Even if they range in effectiveness across the sets, all of the Pokemon have an option one way or another that reliably give them leverage into this set and force at most a trade if utilized haphazardly.

___

In conclusion, I hope this post gives you a bit more of an insight into the nature of Gouging Fire’s effects in-game and across the builder. I believe the fact that so many blanket checks exist for Gouging Fire that can overlap to check it and several other Pokemon make it a fairly manageable threat that provides more than it takes.

Additionally, just as Tera can be an excellent tool for it, your own Tera can make just as big of a potential difference in providing that extra option to keep it in check. While threat saturation is a big variable and Gouging Fire undoubtedly contributes to it with its ability to force a potential Tera or effectively chip down walls for another dangerous sweeper, I personally don’t think Gouging Fire is the correct choice to ban in the context of threat saturation due to a combination of its otherwise healthy qualities and the fact that its checklist is far more manageable and even organically good in this metagame regardless. I think if we suspect anything else that Gouging Fire’s presence may even skew even closer toward positive.

With all of this in mind, I believe overall that Gouging Fire should not be banned.
As much as I hate to say it, yeah this is exactly how I think of it. I feel it is kind of a necessary evil to have around compared to stuff like Kyurem and Moon. Kind of reminds me of Gambit in that sense where most of what is breaking it to some is the ridiculous calcs caused by multiplicative tera BS on top of proto. I do think this Mon does offer a ton of positives to the tier though as you have said. I was already leaning a little towards no ban in my stance anyway (Not that i'm gonna get reqs because I can't be bothered to do so), but this post pretty much sums up my thoughts about Gouging Fire.
 
Gouging Fire does have some positive effects on the meta, but I think keeping Gouging Fire will likely result in every other suspect moving forward ending up with a DNB verdict since it's a big stat stick defensively to a level we haven't seen for a mainstay OU mon (Zygarde-Complete was banned very quickly). I believe the repercussions of keeping Gouging Fire is that the playerbase will continue to thin out (there are accounts in the 1600s right now in the Top 500 on ladder) since aside from Archaludon, nobody can agree on what is wrong with the tier even though the problem of threat saturation is real. And let's face it, Ogerpon-Wellspring is not getting banned. There is no ban this generation that has happened without getting Offense players on board, and since Ogerpon-Wellspring's worst match-up is offense, it will not be banned either.
 
(there are accounts in the 1600s right now in the Top 500 on ladder)
how much of that do you reckon has to do with there being a suspect test going on right now? i don't really follow what the top 500 looks like on a day-to-day basis, so i don't know what normal ladder elo trends look like during a suspect test. doss the average top-500 elo normally go down because a bunch of people are laddering on new accounts so there's less activity high up? or does it go up because the ladder is more active? is the ladder even significantly more active during suspect tests? i'd think so but i have no idea. is this a normal, expected thing that's happening right now, or is it a sign of a meta that high-level players are losing interest in? and if it's the latter, what can we do about it?
 
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