SPOILERS! Scarlet & Violet Leaks Thread - Data/Mechanics

Yeah, this recent 4Chan movepool leak looks fake asf. They mention Toxic as a “returning/new” movepool addition for Amoonguss when it already has Toxic. Mamoswine getting Knock Off + Slack Off also seems suspect to me, so yeah don’t trust this one. The leaker that leaked Shadow Tag Munkidori is more trustworthy to me tbh

Everything getting Head Smash for some reason does seem like a Game Freak thing to do though ngl

give Aerodactyl Head Smash and Brave Bird already Game Freak. Don’t be cowards.
 
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Fact-checking time:

The confirmed in-game description of the move:
- Matcha Gotcha
The user fires a blast of tea that it mixed. The user's HP is restored by up to half the damage taken by the target. This may also leave the target with a burn.​
The "leaker's" claims about the move:
its new signature move, "Matcha Gotcha", a Grass-Type Special move that has a weaker base power of 65, but it heals back 75% of the damage dealt to and as a 30% chance to Burn any targets.​
If their claims were true, the in-game description would say "The user's HP is restored by over half the damage taken by the target." like Draining Kiss and Oblivion Wing.

The TM distribution is also... clearly just using TheDragonTexasWarrior2001's previously-posted speculative list as a template. I suspect whoever stole this must have gotten it through RoiDadadou's leak compilation, which has gotten some traction and happened to include this speculative list.
This becomes really obvious if you take the time to compare the lists, especially the Gen IX section. Whoever copied it didn't even attempt to fact-check it first (they have many identical mistakes and inconsistencies with IoA move distribution, although the "leak" introduces a lot of new and even more confusing errors with their own TM list), nor did they make any effort to cover their tracks (both lists just happen to include the same completely random selection of Gen IX Pokémon with the same IoA moves; neither list includes close to every Gen IX Pokémon, so the fact that the ones they do include are exactly the same is a dead giveaway).
Many other oddly specific details are also copied from TheDragonTexasWarrior2001, including the additions of preexisting Gen IX TMs (like Dragon Dance Arbok and Aura Sphere Infernape) which makes much less sense with this fake leak's implied context of focusing only on new TMs and barely touching anything else that Gen IX already had.



Criticism time:

Okay, but seriously, the fake TM list in question is... not even well made...?
It looks like it was barely proofread (side-eyeing the Jangmo-o line P:), and it isn't at all clear whether or not moves on Pokémon that already learned them in past Gens are supposed to be listed, but they're wildly inconsistent about it. This is especially bad because people keep assuming moves like Toxic and Scald will have different distribution from past games; leaving a move out could reasonably be expected actually mean something... if not for how many alleged TMs are on exactly nothing or just one line, so basically we would have to assume the old distribution as a baseline for some moves but not others?
There are many weird discrepancies that strongly suggest someone was just making things up as they went and not even bothering to cross-reference with the canon distribution of moves, like:
- Superpower is listed on Basculin and Hydreigon (which both already learned it), but not any of the other things that also already learned it (most notably Lurantis, which cares about it way more than Basculin so let's not pretend it's just the leaker's idea of what's "relevant" vs "not worth listing");
- some IoA moves have almost their full distribution accurate to Gen VIII, while others (like Skitter Smack and Corrosive Gas) aren't even listed, and ones like Coaching are somewhere in between at complete random;
- there are many small-scope inconsistencies, like Dudunsparce specifically listing exactly one of the four IoA moves Dunsparce already had and objectively the least cool of them instead of either all or none of them;
- and there many other of signs of carelessness, like... a ton of TMs are added to NFEs but not their own final stages, Scald is on female Basculegion but not males (are the males not hot enough for you??), and it just... gives TMs to way too few Pokémon from Gen IX compared to how few remarkably Pokémon were left without the IoA tutors in Gen VIII, because the maker just didn't even care enough to finish what they started P:​
also what is the leaker even trying to say with the weird comments like "transfer from SwSh to PLA if you want Expanding Force" on Kirlia
that's not how this works


Aside from that, it's just. bland and tasteless and bad?
It makes next to no creative calls whatsoever, which is the bare minimum standard you should ask from a leak like this (make it FUN, gosh darnit!! if you're not going to be convincing, at least be interesting!!),
and in the rare cases when they made any bold choices that weren't just ridiculously safe and obvious, the choices are just. like. bad? but not even in interesting ways?
Most of them are just. moves that people think sound "obvious" but were very obviously rejected for good reason when they had the chance last Gen. Seriously, Poltergeist Dragapult? Scorching Sands Volcarona? Terrain moves on the tapu (especially Lele)? Roost Galarian birds? Do these really all hold up to even slight scrutiny?
Then there are the other "creative" takes... the Slack Off distribution is plainly just a contrivance to put it on Snorlax, Flip Turn Dondozo also doesn't exactly make sense (the gimmick of Commander prevents the user's own pivoting moves from working anyway...), and the Poltergeist distribution is noticeably way more reckless after Gen VIII's actually-smart choices even aside from Dragapult putting it on Basculegion is just gross sorry </3
and they made a High Horsepower TM and didn't even give it to Palkia! come on, you had ONE job--

The wacky Head Smash distribution is the only remotely compelling thing here; the rest is just a sloppy mess with nothing original but a million of the blandest bad takes imaginable
so uh, please stop calling it "too good to be true" I'm begging



Speculation time:

Okay, that's enough about obvious fake leaks!!! Let's talk about expectations instead.
Here are some things I have in mind as a point of reference, based on what's leaked so far:

- The distribution of IoA moves to old Pokémon will probably not be that far removed from the datamined HOME list from last Gen.
- This is known to be a rough draft from pre-IoA and has differences from the final version even in Gen VIII, so it should obviously be taken with a grain of salt! but I think it's a useful frame of reference, because a) it included the whole National dex as of Gen VIII and b) it actually originates from Game Freak, even if they will certainly have revised it; it will not align 100% with the final version, but it can help people make educated guesses with some awareness of what Game Freak actually thinks about.
- I would maybe put an asterisk next to some of these, like Breloom getting Glide - I personally think it deserves it and would be cool, but they're definitely stingier with handing out strong Technician options and the move was not Technician-boosted at the time this list was made, so it's up in the air whether they'd still be committed to it.
- If a Pokémon had a move on this early list and later lost it (like the terrain moves on the tapu, for instance), it means Game Freak considered the move at first, evaluated it purposefully, and very specifically decided it was a bad idea and they didn't want it after all. That makes it one of the least likely things for them to go back on, compared to a move whose exclusion or inclusion was just an oversight or an afterthought to begin with.
- In the same vein, we know from datamined prototype learnsets (this is unused data from Legends: Arceus, which we know was forked in the middle of Isle of Armor's development as it also included incomplete versions of many of the DLC moves) that the Galarian birds were originally considered to learn Roost at level 40 like their Kantonian counterparts but specifically lost it by the final release: Articuno for Recover because it was the only one they actually wanted to have recovery, Zapdos for Quick Guard which is actually a solid move on it, and Moltres for... an obvious throwaway in After You that it has never run and never will run, because they just wanted to get rid of Roost. That in mind, I would not personally count on them going back on this, although I can always be wrong.​

- The Loyal Three will probably have BSTs no higher than 550. The official site is refusing to even call them Legendary, and 550 is the usual middle ground for "kinda sorta looks like it ought to be Legendary but not really for some reason."
- The Loyal Three will not have Hidden Abilities.
- Look me in the eyes and just try to tell me with a straight face that you believe Okidogi has more than base 60 Speed...
- On that note, I do actually think Fezandipiti's highest stat will be its Speed and Munkidori's will be its Special Attack, so it's weird to me that multiple of these fakes have given Fezandipiti 100 to 110 Speed but 140+ SpA and tried to frame Munkidori as "bulky."
edit: oops I left this sentence very unfinished and messy

- Ogerpon will (obviously) have a BST no higher than 600, but I personally anticipate 580, 570 or 550 for this one; I'm kinda leaning towards the lower end of those (so 550), knowing that its Abilities seem to give it a free boost to some of its stats. Urshifu was last Gen's the DLC1 mascot and also had 550 BST, for comparison.
- I am also personally doubtful that Ogerpon's forms will have drastically different base stats from one another, because differentiating their stats is the point of their Abilities instead. I'm kinda surprised that multiple fake leaks in a row have tried to differentiate them all so much, because I was kinda taking for granted that all four forms would have exactly the same base stats and it didn't even occur to me to think otherwise until everyone else seemed to.
- That said, I would like to raise the possibility that Ogerpon may have a different (probably weak/intentionally useless) standard Ability and only gain Embody Aspect when it Terastallizes into the appropriate type. The Ability description refers to "causing the Mask to shine," which to me sounds like it must be referring to the Terastallized State shown on the official site.
- Now might be a good time to bring up that, even though they are recognized as distinct forms by the in-game Pokédex, Gigantamax forms were not internally listed as alternate forms in SwSh - they boiled down to a Pokémon swapping to a different model when Dynamaxing and making a small, scripted change to its movepool, not an explicit form change.
Obviously there was no form leaked in HOME that matched Ogerpon's Terastallized State, but what I'm saying is that it might still be mechanically distinct in a relevant way, like how Gigantamaxes functionally weren't forms but still had different moves; I feel like it would be silly to design Ogerpon around a unique Terastallized State if it did literally nothing.
- The question is exactly how it might be mechanically distinct, if at all, knowing that it's not internally treated as a form change (so it probably can't be anything big like base stats).
I'm personally hoping that that the change is what gives it Embody Aspect rather than having it by default, but I'm not sure if that's fully realistic; it might also be something more specific to Tera, like modifying Tera Blast or Ivy Cudgel, for instance.
- Lastly, since Ogerpon's Terastallized State does not have a visible hat, I don't think it can enter that state with just any Tera Type. I suspect that it needs to match its mask (Tera Grass for the Teal Mask, Tera Fire for the Hearthflame Mask, and so on) if it wants to show its Terastallized State... which in turn makes me think there needs to be a mechanical reason to prefer those forms over any other Tera Type... which loops back to my personal hope that the form-specific Embody Aspect is for these specifically and not just there by default.​
- In this situation, having the form-changing masks as Key Items would likely serve a dual purpose of changing its Tera Type to the one it needs to enter its signature Terastallized State without needing to pay Tera Shards every time.​

- That aside, I believe it's a very safe bet that all of Ogerpon's forms will be physically biased, accounting for its signature move, dex entries, and the fact that it conspicuously has a mask to boost any stat it wants except SpA... buuut a personal hope of mine is that its Special Attack is also decently usable and that it won't have Poltergeist access, because physically-biased mixed Ghost-types are my favorite!
- On that note, I feel like it would make a lot of mechanical design sense for the Teal Mask form (Grass/Ghost) to have the weakest physical STABs (like limited Ghost access + Ivy Cudgel defaulting to Grass) in return for having what's arguably the most significant stat boost from Embody Aspect, pushing it more into the common "ludicrously fast utility but only one convenient STAB type" archetype,
while the other mask forms should keep Grass (not Ghost) and be guaranteed a secondary STAB through Ivy Cudgel, making up for lost Speed with reliable dual STABs.
This is just what I personally want from it and I get why people lean towards all of its forms sharing Ghost instead, but I do think it's possible!​

- Ursaluna is already one of the most minmaxed Pokémon of all time, so when a "leak" makes its Special Attack even lower, it's fake. P:
- At least if a leak specifies that Mind's Eye is for Bloodmoon, which is definitely probable but still technically not confirmed, I would think twice about anyone claiming it loses the Normal-type. It's not like it's a Fake Out user or something that would badly want to run non-STAB Normal moves; the only possible utility of a Scrappy clone is blocking Intimidate, which we don't even know if Mind's Eye still does...
- This is a longshot, but I would remain open to the possibility that Mind's Eye may not be meant for Bloodmoon at all. It meshes well enough with its flavor text that it probably belongs on it, sure, but Centro only really got to that conclusion by process of elimination (because every other new Pokémon already had a signature Ability); if it's possible that Ogerpon's Ability changes when its mask activates like I have speculated, Mind's Eye might be for another Pokémon with a Terastallized State (by the same mechanic) if there are any, or it might even be a knowingly-useless signature as a throwaway for non-Terastallized Ogerpon (something you're happy to be rid of when it Teras P:).​
- The main reason I'm trying to remain skeptical is just that... this Ability is... kind of bad, you guys.
Ursaluna losing its current Abilities for this, at the same time that it loses any reason to want to hit Ghost-types with Normal-type moves (Khu has been practically shoving in our faces that it has something to do with the Dark type...! he's said this it three different ways! so Dark STAB is always hitting Ghost harder than neutral Normal STAB anyway, and one of the best Ghost-types right now resists Normal even through Scrappy, and its signature move doesn't sound Normal-type, and it obviously can't have Guts and Mind's Eye at the same time, so it's not running Facade either), sounds almost comically aimless for a Generation that's known for introducing unprecedentedly strong signatures left and right, let alone for something that has to pull off being a sidegrade to Ursaluna and is being set up as even more powerful and special.​
- I'm aware that this is hardly a solid enough reason to reject what still seems to be the most likely option, so I guess just... consider this my way of questioning what on Earth they're planning for Bloodmoon :'D Game Freak is not as stupid as people think they are and they know exactly how to make a Pokémon strong when they want it to be, so I'm, uh, looking forward to understanding this one better and I guess just wanted to bring up the slim chance that it's not quite what we think?
- All of that aside, I want to say that I actually really like this fake leak's angle that Blood Moon (the move) is a different type from Ursaluna and it's meant to Terastallize to use it, just like Electro Shot for Archaludon. That's a pretty cool take and I can see it!

So uh, yeah! Those are my takes on the leaks so far; it'll be interesting to see how they compare when the real datamine comes out!
 
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I am begging and pleading with you all to stop mindlessly hyping up random 4chan posts as sources of legit information. I can go on there right now and make a cryptic sounding post and fish for replies. You are all giving random teenagers with nothing better to do the attention they crave for being annoying. For the younger folks who might just be more naive to the internet, 4chan is not some mythical place where leaks fly wild. You can post whatever bullshit there you want. Something being posted there has no merit for being discussed on the best of days and you need a pretty good reason to share something.

You want to know when a leak is worth posting? Here are a few ideas:
  • A post uses a tripcode (username equivalent essentially) from a person that has previously leaked legitimate information
  • An older post has information in it that was later on proven true.
  • A prominent leaker has commented on a post and shown support.

Someone posting a cryptic list of moves is not credible in any way until proven otherwise. See an interesting list of moves? Cool! Keep it to yourself until you see official material that corresponds with the leak and gives it some sort of legitimacy. You wait until leaks have part of them that are proven true to discuss them, not the other way around. Otherwise you are perpetually gnawing on the same innane shit we've seen hundreds of times every release cycle. Have some standards yall c'mon.
 
I am begging and pleading with you all to stop mindlessly hyping up random 4chan posts as sources of legit information. I can go on there right now and make a cryptic sounding post and fish for replies. You are all giving random teenagers with nothing better to do the attention they crave for being annoying. For the younger folks who might just be more naive to the internet, 4chan is not some mythical place where leaks fly wild. You can post whatever bullshit there you want. Something being posted there has no merit for being discussed on the best of days and you need a pretty good reason to share something.

You want to know when a leak is worth posting? Here are a few ideas:
  • A post uses a tripcode (username equivalent essentially) from a person that has previously leaked legitimate information
  • An older post has information in it that was later on proven true.
  • A prominent leaker has commented on a post and shown support.

Someone posting a cryptic list of moves is not credible in any way until proven otherwise. See an interesting list of moves? Cool! Keep it to yourself until you see official material that corresponds with the leak and gives it some sort of legitimacy. You wait until leaks have part of them that are proven true to discuss them, not the other way around. Otherwise you are perpetually gnawing on the same innane shit we've seen hundreds of times every release cycle. Have some standards yall c'mon.


This thread in a nutshell.
 
Look me in the eyes and just try to tell me with a straight face that you believe Okidogi has more than base 60 Speed...
While you made some good points, this one I don't get. Like why would it not? I really think people should stop making stat assumptions based on physical appearance.


That said, I would like to raise the possibility that Ogerpon may have a different (probably weak/intentionally useless) standard Ability and only gain Embody Aspect when it Terastallizes into the appropriate type. The Ability description refers to "causing the Mask to shine," which to me sounds like it must be referring to the Terastallized State shown on the official site.
This I don't buy. I really doubt they're gonna make the mascot of their dlc have such a specific stringent requirement to access its signature ability which would significantly limit how it could be used. Especially this gen when they've had a far looser hand when concerning balance. It just wouldn't make people want to use it that much unless it has REALLY good stats.
 

DHR-107

Robot from the Future
is a Member of Senior Staffis a Community Contributoris a Smogon Discord Contributoris a Pokemon Researcheris a Smogon Media Contributor
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I am begging and pleading with you all to stop mindlessly hyping up random 4chan posts as sources of legit information. I can go on there right now and make a cryptic sounding post and fish for replies. You are all giving random teenagers with nothing better to do the attention they crave for being annoying. For the younger folks who might just be more naive to the internet, 4chan is not some mythical place where leaks fly wild. You can post whatever bullshit there you want. Something being posted there has no merit for being discussed on the best of days and you need a pretty good reason to share something.

You want to know when a leak is worth posting? Here are a few ideas:
  • A post uses a tripcode (username equivalent essentially) from a person that has previously leaked legitimate information
  • An older post has information in it that was later on proven true.
  • A prominent leaker has commented on a post and shown support.

Someone posting a cryptic list of moves is not credible in any way until proven otherwise. See an interesting list of moves? Cool! Keep it to yourself until you see official material that corresponds with the leak and gives it some sort of legitimacy. You wait until leaks have part of them that are proven true to discuss them, not the other way around. Otherwise you are perpetually gnawing on the same innane shit we've seen hundreds of times every release cycle. Have some standards yall c'mon.
Just to reiterate this - Stop with the 4chan nonsense. I'm disappointed badged users are engaging in this as well.

Every time stuff like this happens people become absolutely feral in terms of posting any HINT of a bit of news even when it's pretty high on the odds of absolute rubbish. Thank you Hematite for the excellent breakdown!

It's an online only DLC - there are no "early leaks". Except from people like Khu who have a proven track record and have clear insider knowledge. No one can crack the encryption on it.

We're four days away, just be patient and wait for then, we'll have all the details by the end of Wednesday anyway!
 
Toxic is confirmed as a TM by official sources.
im aware, i goofed a bit

Just to reiterate this - Stop with the 4chan nonsense. I'm disappointed badged users are engaging in this as well.

Every time stuff like this happens people become absolutely feral in terms of posting any HINT of a bit of news even when it's pretty high on the odds of absolute rubbish. Thank you Hematite for the excellent breakdown!

It's an online only DLC - there are no "early leaks". Except from people like Khu who have a proven track record and have clear insider knowledge. No one can crack the encryption on it.

We're four days away, just be patient and wait for then, we'll have all the details by the end of Wednesday anyway!
Yeah, thank you Hematite! Also, 3 more days
 

Blitz

Mightiest of Cleaves
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Discord Leader
^ Thank you. Insane to me that posting 4chan “leaks” (none of which has caused anyone to “gobble this shit up”) is causing people to get upset rather than just enjoy the craziness in the few days we have left before the DLC drops. It’s not that serious lol
 

chimp

Go Bananas
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Just to reiterate this - Stop with the 4chan nonsense. I'm disappointed badged users are engaging in this as well.

Every time stuff like this happens people become absolutely feral in terms of posting any HINT of a bit of news even when it's pretty high on the odds of absolute rubbish. Thank you Hematite for the excellent breakdown!

It's an online only DLC - there are no "early leaks". Except from people like Khu who have a proven track record and have clear insider knowledge. No one can crack the encryption on it.

We're four days away, just be patient and wait for then, we'll have all the details by the end of Wednesday anyway!
For those of us in the States, we'll actually get the info drop on Tuesday, Sept 12th, at around 6pm PT. Unless I'm mistaken!
 
For those of us in the States, we'll actually get the info drop on Tuesday, Sept 12th, at around 6pm PT. Unless I'm mistaken!
It should be around 8 EST, which I think is about 5 PT

In situations like these, where the update rolls out everywhere at the same time rather than tied to specific region times, that's generally the time updates go live. And cross checking that's when Home starts its maintenance since thats also when 00:00 UST is
 
Speaking of ""leaks"", while I was looking at Iron Leaves for another topic, I noticed a interesting oddity, Megahorn is not part of the learnset, but rather a "event only" move.

Considering there is no TM currently for it, and that the pokemon is likely to be made available normally at some point seeing as we already know "Raikou" and "Cobalion" are going to be catchable and presumably so will be "Entei" and "Terrakion", I do wonder if Megahorn is indeed one of the returning TMs.
 
Speaking of ""leaks"", while I was looking at Iron Leaves for another topic, I noticed a interesting oddity, Megahorn is not part of the learnset, but rather a "event only" move.

Considering there is no TM currently for it, and that the pokemon is likely to be made available normally at some point seeing as we already know "Raikou" and "Cobalion" are going to be catchable and presumably so will be "Entei" and "Terrakion", I do wonder if Megahorn is indeed one of the returning TMs.
It learns Megahorn at level 77! The only thing that's weird about the raid is having it two levels early, since you catch it at level 75.
 

Anubis

HONK
is a Community Contributoris a Top Researcheris a Battle Simulator Admin Alumnusis a Community Leader Alumnusis a Smogon Discord Contributor Alumnus
I am begging and pleading with you all to stop mindlessly hyping up random 4chan posts as sources of legit information. I can go on there right now and make a cryptic sounding post and fish for replies. You are all giving random teenagers with nothing better to do the attention they crave for being annoying. For the younger folks who might just be more naive to the internet, 4chan is not some mythical place where leaks fly wild. You can post whatever bullshit there you want. Something being posted there has no merit for being discussed on the best of days and you need a pretty good reason to share something.

You want to know when a leak is worth posting? Here are a few ideas:
  • A post uses a tripcode (username equivalent essentially) from a person that has previously leaked legitimate information
  • An older post has information in it that was later on proven true.
  • A prominent leaker has commented on a post and shown support.

Someone posting a cryptic list of moves is not credible in any way until proven otherwise. See an interesting list of moves? Cool! Keep it to yourself until you see official material that corresponds with the leak and gives it some sort of legitimacy. You wait until leaks have part of them that are proven true to discuss them, not the other way around. Otherwise you are perpetually gnawing on the same innane shit we've seen hundreds of times every release cycle. Have some standards yall c'mon.
I'm late to the convo (maybe a good thing), but I was gonna say the HOME images/text leak is just that, dex images and text. There aren't any learnsets or stats. That's all made up by people trying to get a foot in the door for attention when there are real images/text circulating, muddying the picture.

My source is: trust me, I have an idea about how it's done
 
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Heh, I remember the Glastrier/Spectrier denialism back in October 2020, but, yeah, let's calm down. We will have the datamine as soon as the patch is live, as it is usually the case.
 
For those of us in the States, we'll actually get the info drop on Tuesday, Sept 12th, at around 6pm PT. Unless I'm mistaken!
It should be around 8 EST, which I think is about 5 PT

In situations like these, where the update rolls out everywhere at the same time rather than tied to specific region times, that's generally the time updates go live. And cross checking that's when Home starts its maintenance since thats also when 00:00 UST is
Home maintenance lasts from 00:00 UTC to 06:00 UTC, so that doesn't mean the DLC drops at 00:00 UTC; it means the DLC drops sometime between the two timestamps.

Since we know it'll be by noon Japan time, that's 03:00 UTC or 11pm ET or 8pm PT.
 

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