Proposal Swagger in GSC OU

Siatam

is a Tutoris a Member of Senior Staffis a Community Contributoris a Former Old Generation Tournament Circuit Champion
RoA Leader
The GSC OU council has decided to open up a discussion around Swagger based on recent tournament and ladder showings in order to gauge public opinion.

Currently, the council has elected to not take action regarding Swagger. We believe Swagger needs to be further proven as ban-worthy and are holding back on taking action until we have community feedback and see Swagger being abused in high level competition.

In GSC, confusion has a 50% chance to inflict self-damage and cause you to lose your turn. At first glance this isn't gamebreaking in a generation with minimal hazards and a lower power level, but Swagger is often stacked with other status conditions such as Paralysis and/or Attract to create potentially unhealthy scenarios.

The best users of Swagger in GSC are Pokemon that take advantage of their high speed and aim to break through common Sleep Talk users such as Snorlax, Zapdos, and Raikou. Alakazam is the prime abuser, but other noteworthy mentions include Jolteon, Zapdos, and Espeon. Additionally, Swagger can be strategically used with Baton Pass to prevent phazing attempts.

Albeit a similar move, Confuse Ray and other confusion inducing moves do not induce Swagger’s +2 Attack boost that increases the impact of self-hits and pushes the 50% odds in favor of the Swagger user. As such we are not examining confusion as a status. Moves like Confuse Ray and Dynamic Punch will not be evaluated at this time.

We open up this topic to invite related discussion around Swagger as we continue to monitor the metagame. We will likely reexamine our stance after the current SPL season ends based on your responses and tournament usage.

Recent tournament replay showcasing Swagger:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen2ou-727991
 

Siatam

is a Tutoris a Member of Senior Staffis a Community Contributoris a Former Old Generation Tournament Circuit Champion
RoA Leader
Speaking individually here, not on behalf of the council.

While I think Swagger has the potential to be uncompetitive, the way it is currently used allows for skill expression from both players.

Modern GSC has very regimented movesets, team structures, and roles. Dropping any traditional moves for Swagger comes with a significant opportunity cost. Most mons have much more valuable sets that you would prefer to use over Swagger. If you want to use Swagger, you have to fully dedicate that mon to exploiting Swagger.

Take for example a set not focused around Swagger: an Alakazam set of Psychic/Fire Punch/Recover/Swagger. This set is just not viable and does not seen any usage. It takes big risks every time it clicks Swagger for a disproportionately small reward. Any fast, frail, Swagger user does not have the luxury of being able to waste turns or take hits while for the more defensive mons that Swagger targets it’s not the end of the world if they lose a turn. Since GSC has a low power level and high average bulk, the risk/reward here is not in favor of the Swagger user. This is to say that Swagger mons cannot be used the same way they are without Swagger. No mon can slap Swagger on their moveset to try to cheese a matchup without seriously compromising their performance elsewhere.

Since Swagger sets need to fully commit to Swagger to be anything close to consistent they pretty much always include a secondary supporting move like Substitute, Attract, or a Paralysis inducing move. This leaves mons with only 2 moveslots at best, greatly limiting coverage or recovery. In both of these cases the Swagger mon must be employed carefully. Movesets with limited coverage need to have checks eliminated or compromised by another status. Sets with limited recovery really can only be used once, rarely twice. Both of these things encourage the Swagger user to set up a gamestate that is optimal for their set. I view this as similar to any traditional strategy like using Explosion to set up for Vaporeon or paralysis to set up for Marowak. It is a good gameplan with a fair chance of success if you set up the proper conditions. If the opponent can identify or predict this strategy they can counterplay accordingly. This is a competitive interaction.

To conclude:
  1. I think we should only ban uncompetitive elements if they are actually viable in the metagame. (Quick Claw is not banned and can be uncompetitive but no one runs it even to cheese because Leftovers is way too important!)
  2. I don't think players will find success slapping Swagger on random sets. (If anyone wants to gamble the game on low odds they can easily load full speed pass and have a 30% chance to immediately win versus most offense teams if Marowak crits or flinches Cloyster after a super linear opening / with minor predictions. This strategy is very rarely employed.)
  3. I think the current strategies of Swagger + Sub/Attract/Paralysis are competitive since they take a concerted effort to set up a good game state. Once enough status effects are stacked on each other it is no longer lucky that the Swagger user wins, it is unlucky if they lose. (To borrow a concept from RBY, is it unlucky that Amnesia Slowbro dies to crits or is it inevitable?)
  4. Things can change - especially points 1 and 2. I can't confidently say raw Swagger sets are never going to be effective. This is why I think the council should take no action but continue to monitor the meta
 

Fear

GSC Monarch
is a Forum Moderatoris a Tiering Contributoris a Past SPL Champion
World Defender
My own input in addition to what was said above;

Even though I do understand the frustration of having to face Swagger and the potential coinflip arguments (especially Swagger and status stacking) what is being brought up regarding skill expression and the actuality of having to set up the field for the Swagger pokemon to get in an optimal gamestate, are points that are hard to argue against especially considering the opportunity cost of bringing Swagger against another move.

For some pokemon, usually special attack based (as noted Alakazam being the main culprit, but also Starmie, perhaps Suicune, ect) Swagger is one potential way to break pokemon like Snorlax, Zapdos and Raikou and this should be respected in GSC because its a gen with as little entry hazards and chip damage as possible. In addition, Leftovers is the dominant held item on almost all pokemon. A theoretical Swagger removal would elevate Snorlax and to a lesser extend Zapdos further ahead of the curve, since that would remove not only a potential tool to break them but also restrict room for future innovation in team building.

Another minor point I would like to add that ties to team building is that in GSC, male pokemon have higher stats thus you often don't need to lower your EVs/DVs or set your pokemon to female because you would do less physical damage. Despite this, you can still somewhat optimize against Swagger and confusion in general by setting zero attack EVs on pokemon that don't use physical attacks like Zapdos or Vaporeon and apply female natures where applicable. Lets also not forget that each pokemon's defense stat is also maximized in EVs and DVs in GSC in contrast to the generations that came after, another point in favor of keeping Swagger.

I welcome you to share your thoughts against or in favor or Swagger while the GSC council has Swagger on the radar and I pledge that I am willing to change my stance if Swagger is ever proven to be problematic or uncomeptitively abusable in the future.
 
My sense is that Swagger should be banned.
However, I also think it is difficult to convince people who are wary of bans these days.
Therefore, I take a neutral position at this time. And, in order to proceed the discussion, I write below the information that I can provide at this time and the evidence which I think we should collect for future discussions.

  1. Premise
    To discuss whether Swagger deserves a ban, we should focus on a special attacker's Swagger against Snorlax.
    As I will explain later, unsound(debatable) behavior occurs in that case.
    (There is also a use for a special attacker to improve its matchup against other special attackers, but that use would be considered sound.)

  2. Competitiveness issue
    The essence of Swagger's competitiveness lies in being able to defeat Snorlax without relying on Spikes.

    As a reference, an example of its use in Japanese NC2000 is presented below.
    https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/differences-between-gen2-poké-cup-and-gen2-ou-strategies.3677370/#post-8744345
    https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/differences-between-gen2-poké-cup-and-gen2-ou-strategies.3677370/page-2#post-8984624

    Even in OU, being able to defeat without waiting for accumulate damage by Spikes against offensive teams and not being vulnerable to Spin against stall teams will be competitive.

    On top of that, as mentioned above, the effect of improving Special Attacker's matchup will overlap.

  3. Unsound behavior issue
    Using Swagger on Snorlax without Substitute creates unsound behavior, especially if Snorlax has Earthquake.
    The outcome of this will largely depend on whether Snorlax self-attacks or not.
    And this will definitely happen at some time if we keep using Swagger.

  4. Next action
    The Replay presented by Siatam was not a case of Substitute-less Swagger against Snorlax.
    If this case were to occur on a high ladder (perhaps Ero 1350 or higher) or in a tournament, we should consider this case as an evidence for debating Swagger ban.

    For reference, I built a prototype Swagger oriented team for OU.
    I'm planning to actually use a team like this and see for myself what kind of evidence I can get.
    https://pokepast.es/7a42a725610d7eb1
    The following is a supplementary note regarding the above team.
    - Cloyster's Hidden Power Dark is not a mistake. This is to balance between destructing Starmie's Substitute and keeping damage on Turn 1 Explosion's against Snorlax lead.
    - Exeggutor's Hidden Power Electric isn't a mistake either. This is to destroy Starmie's Substitute while also defeating Skarmory.
 

Century Express

melodies of life
is a Tutoris a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Former Old Generation Tournament Circuit Champion
World Defender
My thoughts at the moment: I genuinely believe Swagger has a potential element to become a issue in the GSC OU, but for now, i'm on the fence about banning about Swagger. In one hand, GSC OU has metagame-defining elements that allows the player to be reasonably safe vs. Swagger / Confuse Ray abusing strategies (e: unlike DPP and RSE, we have: only one layer of Spikes, lack of permanent Sandstorm / Hail, nearly everything runs Leftovers, the presence of two top-tier genderless legendaries that can afford to drop their Atk DVs on purpose and heal themselves through Rest(Talk), 999 Atk mechanics making Swagger actually fail, and so and on). However, there's a potential (in theory) where Swagger can be abused with Baton Pass, creating undesirable interactions against Roar / Whirlwind users and turn these gamestates into complete gambles.

In Conflict's Classic game game for example, I think it's very important to emphasize that while Swagger increased Alakazam's odds of winning considerably, the main element that allowed Alakazam to shine, was simply removing its main obstacles - Snorlax and Steelix were KO'd, meaning that any Alakazam had a generous winpath at that point regardless of its moveset variant. However, in retrospect, if Snorlax or Steelix were alive and still capable of trading hits, Conflict's Alakazam would need to negotiate its resources (lack of Fire Punch to punish Steel-types, Psychic having only 16 PPs) to have a realistic chance of winning. Similar things happen to Swagger variants of Zapdos - where you lose a crucial advantage in the Zapdos mirror, or where it handicaps itself under a Spikeless scenario. Identifying these moveset strenghts, flaws & opportunity cost (as Siatam said) is a reasonably good way of playing around Swagger users.

Even though it looked like I was defending Swagger in the previous paragraph, it doesn't mean that I think keeping Swagger in GSC is perfectly fine - I still believe Swagger can generate "out of my control-esque" situations, when used in conjuction with Baton Pass, which I consider quite problematic overall. That being said, we don't have enough replays showcasing Swagger's true potential - I would be dishonest to myself, if I decided to take a pro-ban stance of Swagger in a heartbeat, when I only saw / used Swagger nearly 20~25 times in all of 5000+ GSC OU games that I've played & watched in my whole life.... if we gather a higher sample size of sucessful Swagger-oriented strategies affecting the metagame in a negative way, then I would be happy to consider a Swagger ban.
 
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Swagger should remain as is in gsc ou.

-Swagger as is has not shown consistent and repeated tournament usage.

-Swagger provides a mostly unexplored route for play and building. Looking from an on paper individual turn perspective swagger is purely a variance move, but in games using swagger can have skill expression and good teams can be built using it.

-The main gripe with swagger is that is sucks to play against.

I would say that swagger has not met the threshold of problematicness to be banned, nor has been fully explored as a potentially legitimate tool in building and play.
 
I've waited for this day to come for a long time. And trust me, on this the community agrees with me.

Swagger as a move is fundamentally stupid. On paper, the risk reward seems p skewed towards risk as you give ur opponent a sword dance, but the subject that is special attackers and defensive pokemon shuts down that argument pretty quickly.

On the topic of defensive pokemon, one might argue that it can be a way of making good progress vs defensive pokemon.

To that I say, you my good sir are bad at the game in that you don't know how to abuse your spikes(and how to keep them up) against defensive teams and I would further proceed to say that you might need to work on significantly improving your performance against stall.

Swagger is a move that reduces skill in game and places the burden of progress entirely on rng. In such a skill intensive meta game such as GSC OU, SWAGGER AS A WHOLE DOES NOT BELONG HERE.
 
I have gathered evidence on the ladder to consider Swagger bans.
The number of games may be a little short, but I thought it would be better to share the current situation, so I'm going to share this.

If I'm asked whether or not to ban Swagger, I'll vote for ban.
However, I'm not strong enough to insist on a ban, and may change my opinion based on the situation.
  1. Competitiveness Issue (Statistics On The Ladder)
    I used only the Swagger team with account "natsume_gochiusa" on the ladder.
    In this team, I tried to use Swagger (+ Substitute) with Zapdos.
    I used the following team for almost all games. The details are different from the previously released team.
    https://pokepast.es/48ea1a980c8b10c9

    Beyond Ero 1300 and 75% GXE, I started matching good players more often, and winning and losing.
    GXE fluctuated within a range of more than 75% and less than 80%.
    Due to the lack of stability, it seemed difficult for my skills to exceed this range, but I think it has a certain level of competitiveness.


    Additionally, account "fuyu_gochiusa", which randomly selects and tests teams that have completed my own quality checks, has similar statistics.

    Most of this accounts use standard offense teams, such as the ones below.
    https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen2ou-2004461931-tgivzgo12bqq4eokq3ca4y011iwwj94pw

    Although the number of games may be a little low, at this point I think the Swagger team is as competitive as the existing standard teams.

  2. Competitiveness Issue (Strategy)
    As I wrote before, there is an advantage to being able to defeat Snorlax without Spikes.
    After actually trying it out, I realized that it has the advantage of being able to create the game the way I want, before giving the opponent a chance to attack. It should be noted that Cloyster's unpredictable Explosion before setting Spikes was useful in some cases (Cloyster's Explosion was especially useful when removing mons like Sleep Inducer and Raikou).

    When using Swagger with Zapdos, I also saw improved matchups.
    Being able to select Tbolt as the STAB to defeat Snorlax prevented it from becoming weaker to Substitute and Sunny Day.
    Of course, Swagger against Special mons and Substitute against mons like Grass Types also worked effectively.
    Although I have never actually used it, there is also a way to use Swagger to cause an overflow(-> decreasing damage) by increasing Marowak's attack stage to +3 or higher.

  3. Soundness Issue
    Swagger against Snorlax was unexpectedly sound.
    Although this overlaps with what other players have already mentioned, all mons have the same level, all mons have level 100 which is the level with the lowest damage rate, 999 Attack Cap will also affect due to its high level, and almost all mons have Leftovers, so I felt that it would be more difficult to defeat Snorlax without thinking than NC2000.
    (Against mons like Raikou and Blissey, easy to achieve an attack EV 0 (difficult if we are not using a simulator) is also affect)
    To defeat Snorlax with Swagger, we need to use the turn when Snorlax switches in, and encourage Snorlax with +2 or higher Attack stage to switch out.
    However, unlike NC2000 which fights with 3 mons, in OU which fights with 6 mons, it's easy to set up by Sleep moves, Explosion, Spikes, (although I did not use it this time) Reflect, and so on.
    As mentioned above, I feel that effort is required for Swagger to work effectively against Snorlax, and I don't think it spoils the elements that reflect the player's skill.

    For example, below is an example where Swagger Zapdos exploits the set up by Sleep move and faints Snorlax.
    https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen2ou-2023619804-9knzyqv9az1rwrzlvaauovd4do781gypw
    Also included in the replay collection mentioned below, there are examples where Raikou and Blissey were extracted with Explosion, and where Spikes reduced Blissey's HP so that it could be defeated with Swagger.

    However, as I feared, there were cases where the game was decided by Snorlax's attack stage being raised by Swagger.
    Below is a replay similar to the previous one, but because Snorlax moved well, I was unable to successfully prompt Snorlax to switch out, and I lost.
    Whether Swagger works well against Snorlax cannot be denied that it depends on RNG.
    https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen2ou-2028434346-turhrokwl18q1adzhipalp3gm07aj88pw

    And I find using Swagger against relatively thin mons like Zapdos and Exeggutor more problematic than bulky mons like Snorlax.
    Gen2 Confusion is designed to last 2-5 turns, this turn cannot be overwritten with Swagger, and on the final turn we can recover from Confusion and move with 100%.
    A bulky mon like Snorlax has a high chance of surviving until the final turn when he can move 100%, so it's rarely a one-sided matchup.
    However, thin mons like Zapdos and Exeggutor may not be able to survive until the final turn, resulting in a one-sided matchup.
    In fact, it can sometimes look like this replay.
    This isn't a high probability, but without Swagger wouldn't have a one-sided matchup like this, and Swagger certainly amplifies the influence of RNG.
    (I feel sorry for the opponent who chatted a dirty word)
    https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen2ou-2029973164

  4. Conclusion
    Through this test, I confirmed that Swagger is competitive and amplifies the influence of RNG.
    I think this deserves a ban.

    However, I think there is room for debate as to what one thinks of this.
    Also, there is a possibility that no one will use it in the future in high level competition, in which case there will be no real impact (like QuickClaw).
    I also understand the opinion that it doesn't deserve a ban, and I don't think it needs to be banned unless real usage increases.

  5. Appendix (The Replay Collection)
    The text file that can be downloaded from the URL below contains all replays of this test.
    Including useless replays like Turn 1 inactivity, and unreliable replays like self-match.
    https://image01.seesaawiki.jp/p/d/pbs-thread/TWQGaylee_.txt
 
I wish to provide with an outline on swagger's impact on the general metagame, by addressing the inherent qualities of the move, underlining its unique and intricate qualities that make it stand out from other status moves in the game.

(I swear this is serious. Please don't delete this)

SWAGGER is uncompetitive

(But it's fucking funny)
First off, if you use Swagger you are either one of two people: someone who enjoys to see people suffer while living in your parents' basement or an absolute gangster.
Think about it. You're willing to put your reputation as a competent player on the line and at the hands of random number generated from some CAM-PU-TOR MA-CHINE just to assert dominance. And by increasing your opponent's Pokémon's attack, you're essentially playing Russian roulette, proving you give absolutely no fucks. That's a power move if I've ever seen one.

There isn't a soul on this Earth who could sit down and explain to me why it's a good thing that such a move exists. Whoever came up with it probably endorses anarchy and should be locked up in a psychiatric ward.
But there are some people that have found a lot of success manipulating RNG or playing the odds, and though this kind of strategy isn't something I'd recommend all the time what I can say is that...

Most of the time, some of the time
IT WORKS EVERY DAMM TIME
So we've discussed how it's not a move that any sane being would ever use and that it's really frustrating and distracting, because if it wasn't clear you essentially are forcing your opponent to play a game of hot potato with themselves as they nervously switch from one Pokémon to another, then stop when they think can stay in and survive a turn... maybe switch a second time, "CURSE WITH SNORLAX BABY!!! ... Shit"

But we have to stop for a moment and think. Can a move that doesn't even always work all the time be so threatening?

On paper we know it has around 95% accuracy. It means 5 out of 100 you are contributing as much to the game as much as Ash's father contributed to his son's college tuition.

(Also I might be wrong about this part but Swagger might also be one of those "100% totally guaranteed secondary effect moves" that actually have a 1/256 odds of not even working, like Dynamic Punch)

So factoring confusion chance of the opponent hitting itself, which if I'm not mistaken is 50%, the move seems strong but already a little bit inconsistent.

But these odds are based on the premise that you're actually willing to and can afford to click the move. There are other inconsistencies that only apply to this move alone and do not apply to other status moves like sleep powder, spore, confuse ray, thunder wave:

What happens if they switch?

You are now back to square 1 and are exposing yourself to the risk of getting knocked the hell out should you choose to click the status move again. But this is part of the risk and I suppose this is also what make it fun, in my opinion.

What if they have a physical attacker?
Tough shit, my dude. You're the one who decided to gamble away your reputation (I wonder if that applies to all players here??? :blobthinking:).

What happens if the opponent's Pokemon's attack is already maxed out?
Then the move will straight up not work, unlike confuse ray. This in my opinion is where Swagger really shows its true filth as a move because in GSC Pokemon can reach the 999 cap of their attack way earlier than 6 stages of stats, meaning you can click swagger AT MOST 3 TIMES.
What if my girlfriend left me *WHEEZE*?
She's right for having done so.


If you're looking for shits and giggles then you don't have to read further.

But now, in all seriousness, if you're trying to find consistency, or at least to exploit specific weaknesses in an opponent's style then you can find success with swagger against these threats, ranked in descending order of magnitude

1 Stall pokemon
:forretress: :starmie: :blissey: :Raikou: :skarmory: :suicune: :missy: :miltank:

The general passive nature of stall builds means that there are plenty of opportunities to stack confusion and attack boosts on your opponent with little drawback. This has the potential to completely invalidate key Pokémon that are the makeup of crucial defensive cores, opening up windows of opportunity that would otherwise not be present with other status moves. The only other status that comes close to these levels of power is paralysis, and though the competitive community do tend to see paralysis as a more competitive move, it's not nearly as polarising or accessible.

2 Special attackers
:Zapdos: :Raikou: :vaporeon: :exeggutor: :Jynx: :espeon: :Moltres: :Gengar:


More often than not, if you have a Pokemon with Swagger, then these Pokemon will be the primary target you are searching for, ie. Pokemon that do not have access or have revealed not to possess powerful physical stab or coverage moves like Double Edge, Earthquake etc. The reason is because if you land the move swagger and they decide to stay in, the only downside now is if they manage to hit you through the chances of confusion since special attackers hurt you using their special attack and have only to lose from the increased attack. Also these Pokemon are quite consistently frail on the physical end so this hurts them more than any other target.

3 Snorlax :Snorlax:
The big boy gets his own category because it's the strongest non in the game and even the slight chance of taking it out is highly beneficial. The high damage to itself really opens up many windows of opportunity to pick apart a team, especially when out up against the likes of your Zapdos, which should be able to take Snorlax out in three swift blows of Thunder/Thunderbolt. Do not underestimate the value of Snorlax missing a turn to do anything.

3.5 other physical attackers/mixed attackers
:Machamp: :heracross: :marowak: :nidoking:
This encompasses a group of undesirable/dangerous targets. While taking them out would certainly benefit your team, it factors in some risks that are way too high for you to want to find a confusion on them in most games, for obvious reasons. But when you take these guys out you get to celebrate.

4 odd support Pokemon/4mss victims
:cloyster: :golem: :steelix: :smeargle:
This is already a lot less beneficial but there are chances where you can target these Pokemon if you have nothing better to click.
I can see many scenarios where a flying Pokemon clicks this move on grounded Pokemon like steelix or golem to annoy them, but they also have a lot of bulk so it will more annoy them than hurt them.

Conclusion

Of all the rng moves this one is probably the least consistent. On one end it would sadden me to see this move gone, because it can be fun. However, I am not opposed to it being banned (there is a part that wants it gone) not because of the generally frustrating nature of the move, but due to how it is so polarising and has the ability to completely stall break with little to no drawback. I do realise this last part sounds a little bit conceited, and that's why I encourage people to read the other posts which all have valid points. I'd like to close off by saying Swagger is far from broken but that its highly un-interactive nature and the added possibility of chipping Pokemon with additional status moves or other attacks gives potential for it to really blow things out of proportion in some cases. Since it's officially a volatile status condition, it can be polarising in a way that Paralysis and Sleep are not.
Again my point of view can be scued into one direction and I recognise its potential to sound or be misleading, but the way I have been playing with swagger in GSC lower tiers has led me to think that it can affect more defensive play styles. Stall is a defining play style of the GSC metagame and to see it get mollywhopped by a single move sucks. It can hurt consistency of certain offense teams in certain scenarios as well (like special offense heavy teams) but they typically have more tools. Swagger seems, in its unfairness, not to be evenly distributed across play styles and should a group of players decide to abuse the move, this would skew the level of competition towards an unhealthy environment that does not reflect the GSC competitive landscape. If I saw someone become champion using this, I would hope that they are equally proficient at using all the other more consistent play styles but I can't mandate that so it's just not a good move.
 
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