Kleber is out for the playoffs... that sucks. He's in the Mavericks best lineups by net rating. It also removes the option of having both a Washington/Kleber frontcourt, the lineup that defensively helped in that post AS break run.
(2) Denver Nuggets versus (3) Minnesota Timberwolves
“They got KD, but we got Jaden McDaniels.” – Anthony Edwards
This is a very exciting matchup. Minnesota is the only team that has the size, length, speed, and rebounding across the roster to force Denver out of their comfort zone. This is expected to be one of the best series this year, and the winner of this series will represent the western conference in the Finals. It’s certain to be close.
Denver’s injuries are piling up on the perimeter, and they lack depth after their starting five as it is. Murray, KCP, and Jackson all had injuries after round 1. This doesn’t mean they won’t play, but it’s the worst time for your perimeter players to rack-up nagging injuries before they face what is likely the most physical team they will come across. It also doesn’t help that Murray was inefficient in round 1. Any slight hint of an injured Murray could mean lights out for Denver’s offense.
Rebounding is the first major factor that will decide the series. Both teams are top ten in defensive rebounding, but offensive rebounding is where Denver makes the positive difference. They ended up being +27 on the boards across their regular season matchups. Minnesota is bottom 10 in offensive rebounding.
The second major factor is turnovers. Minnesota wants to play fast. As good as they looked in round 1, I still don’t think they’ll ever be as good in the half court as Denver. They also have more athletes and depth. Denver had 20+ more turnovers than Minnesota during their regular season matchups, so Minnesota forced quite a bit. That’s even considering Denver having the 5th least turnovers in the league.
Rebounding and turnovers are major parts of these teams’ identities, and the winner will have to manage both stats in their favor to a certain extent. It doesn’t matter how well you beat a team on the glass if you are losing just as many live ball possessions, and vice-versa for forcing more turnovers on the opponent yet losing as many possessions through a lack of rebounding.
Denver will need their bench and role players to step up offensively. Minnesota is fast and long, so to space them out, guys need to make enough shots. Surely, Finch will do what he always does which is have KAT on Jokic (who has guarded him quite well throughout their careers) and Gobert roam off Gordon. Minnesota’s rotations will force guys like Gordon, KCP, Braun, and Watson to make shots. Jokic and Porter Jr. are their tallest and most efficient three-point shooters. Those two shooting a high percentage will go a long way, and it’s the best chance Denver has beating Minnesota’s half court defense.
Anything that can draw Gobert away from the basket will tank Minnesota’s defense, so Gordon has to find a way score off opportunities Gobert camps under the basket. Jokic can also directly attack Gobert whenever he’s switched on him. Gobert has length but not the strength to contain Jokic, so we should also expect Jokic to be more of an aggressive scorer in this series to balance out Denver's potential perimeter offensive struggles. KAT/Gobert may be capable of contesting Jokic at the three-point line, but Minnesota only has one McDaniel. The other perimeter player to end up on MPG may be Ant. Ant has the athleticism, but I don’t think he has the size. MPJ’s shooting can help tip the scales and space out Minnesota with size that can shoot over the top of length.
The only real decisive matchup advantage Minnesota has is through Ant. KCP’s ability to hold up defensively is going to be a challenge especially if he has lingering ankle issues. Braun/Watson are unproven. Gordon should be expected to guard Ant in spots, but Finch doesn’t want to do that too much because he’s the best backline defender if Jokic is screened high. Ant will certainly test Denver’s perimeter depth and rotations with pull-up jumpers. If Ant makes enough of them, Denver may be out of options then.
I favor Denver very slightly, and it’s all hunch. These teams can exploit many things from each other but how are they at the end of games? Minnesota has had clutch time issues all regular season, and the only times they truly succeed is when they aren’t forced to play clutch basketball. Unfortunately for Minnesota, their greatest weakness is Denver’s best strength. Minnesota’s defense is great enough to keep close with Denver for 48 minutes, but their clutch offense is what gets them in trouble. Denver is significantly better than Minnesota in the half court and can potentially get extra possessions. That means, if everyone is semi-healthy and all games are close, the better rebounding, clutch team
should win.
Denver wins if: Denver takes care of the ball, win the glass, and keep Minnesota in the half court. Murray isn’t too hampered to score. Denver’s role players make their shots. MPJ and Jokic shoot enough to stretch Minnesota’s defense. Minnesota is turning it over and fouling Denver all over the place.
Minnesota wins if: They dominate the turnover battle, kept up with rebounding, and win the battle of attrition with Denver’s lack of depth and presence of injuries. Denver can’t keep Ant out of transition or the paint. Ant shoots an amazing jumpshooting percentage. Murray can’t solve Minnesota’s defense.
Denver in six.
(6) Indiana Pacers versus (2) New York Knicks
“If I was playing, Boston would be at home, New York damn sure would be at home. Josh Hart? C’mon man.” - Jimmy Butler
Indiana doesn’t have much of a chance in this series. There isn’t as much data in the regular season pertaining to Siakim and Haliburton both healthy in the same lineup, but as a team, Indiana’s weaknesses only seem to accentuate New York’s strengths.
Indiana’s defense leaves a lot to be desired, and that was still on display in round 1. That Milwaukee team should not have scored as well as they should have without Giannis and Dame. If you had the likes of a mid-30s Beverly picking your defense apart, something’s amiss.
Indiana will not get their desired pace against New York because New York excels them in almost every relevant defensive metric. Thibs is the master of old-school defense and pace, and you bet he took notes from that Milwaukee matchup. New York is the #1 offensive rebounding team with solid transition defense, paint defense, and 3-point % defense. They are stronger at almost every position and just got through with one of the most lethal pick-and-roll duos in Embiid/Maxey. I don’t think Indiana has a two-man game even comparable to that.
New York wins if: They pound the ball inside and remain physical. They won the glass, got back in transition, and slow Indiana’s offense to a halt.
Indiana wins if: They somehow manage to shoot a high percentage from three, Siakim shows us something we haven’t seen on offense, or Haliburton becomes completely unguardable.
New York in five.